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Dynamiques de pauvreté en milieu rural malgache

  • Claire Gondard-Delcroix

    ()

    (GED, Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV)

Après des décennies de recul du PIB par habitant à Madagascar, les années 1990 ont renoué avec la croissance. Cependant, les répercussions en milieu rural, notamment en ce qui concerne la pauvreté, restent mal connues. L’article se propose donc d’étudier les dynamiques rurales de la pauvreté à Madagascar. Pour ce faire, deux types d’analyses complémentaires sont développés : il s’agit, en premier lieu, de mener une comparaison temporelle des indicateurs monétaires de pauvreté ; en second lieu, un accent particulier est mis sur l’identification des formes dynamiques de la pauvreté (pauvreté chronique et pauvreté transitoire) et de leurs déterminants sur la base de données de panel. Il s’avère que les évolutions de la pauvreté en milieu rural sont assez largement déconnectées des tendances macroéconomiques nationales (mis à part pour l’année 2002). Elles sont en outre différenciées d’une zone rurale à l’autre. Il apparaît ainsi que les évolutions de la pauvreté s’expliquent majoritairement par la survenance de chocs positifs ou négatifs localisés, soulignant la précarité des conditions de vie des ménages ruraux. Par ailleurs, l’analyse des formes de pauvreté, bien qu’elle confirme des spécificités locales marquées dans la prédominance d’une forme de pauvreté plutôt que l’autre, met également en exergue l’influence majeure des dotations en actifs (particulièrement la dotation terrienne) et des moyens de protection vis-à-vis des aléas (diversification des activités et capital social notamment). After decades of decline of the GDP per capita in Madagascar, it increases at the end of the 1990’s. However, the effects on poverty, especially in rural Madagascar, are poorly documented. This paper proposes to study dynamic rural poverty in Madagascar following two types of complementary analyses: firstly, by carrying out a temporal comparison of poverty indicators; then, by identifying chronic poverty and transitory poverty and their determinants on the basis of panel data. We show that poverty evolution in rural Madagascar is rather disconnected from the national macroeconomic tendencies (aside for the year 2002). Moreover, they are differentiated from one rural zone to another. It appears that poverty evolution is mainly explained by localised shocks, emphasising the vulnerability of rural livelihoods. In addition, although the analysis of chronic and transitory poverty confirms local specificities, it also puts forward the major influence of shocks and protection with respect to risk. (Full text in french)

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Paper provided by Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV in its series Documents de travail with number 111.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mon:ceddtr:111
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  1. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 1996. "Transient poverty in rural China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1616, The World Bank.
  2. Jean-Luc Dubois & Isabelle Droy, 2001. "L'observatoire : un instrument pour le suivi de la pauvreté," Documents de travail 59, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
  3. Javier Herrera & François Roubaud, 2005. "Dynamique de la pauvreté urbaine au Pérou et à Madagascar 1997-1999: Une Analyse sur données de panel," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 106, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
  5. Coudouel, Aline & Hentschel, Jesko & Wodon, Quentin, 2002. "Mesure et analyse de la pauvreté
    [Poverty Measurement and Analysis]
    ," MPRA Paper 10490, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Stephen P. Jenkins, 2000. "Modelling household income dynamics," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 529-567.
  7. Ravallion, Martin & Bidani, Benu, 1993. "How robust is a poverty profile?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1223, The World Bank.
  8. Atkinson, Anthony B, 1991. "Comparing Poverty Rates Internationally: Lessons from Recent Studies in Developed Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 5(1), pages 3-21, January.
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