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Dynamique de la pauvreté urbaine au Pérou et à Madagascar 1997-1999: une analyse sur données de panel

  • Javier Herrera


    (DIAL, IRD, Paris)

  • François Roubaud


    (DIAL, IRD, Paris)

(english) Because of the lack of panel data there have been few studies on poverty dynamics in developing countries. Furthermore, because of methodological differences, it is difficult to draw general conclusions from them. This paper analyses a large sample of Peruvian and Madagascan urban households (1997-1999), applying the same methodology for both countries. Its objective is to identify the general and specific characteristics of chronic and transient poverty. We measure the importance of poverty transitions, as well as the characteristics of the temporarily and the chronically poor, with respect to those of non-poor households. Using a multinomial logit model, we also highlight the specific contribution to chronic poverty and poverty entries/exits of three main variables: household characteristics (demographics, human and physical capital), and shocks (related to both demographics and job market) experienced by these households; « geographic » variables linked to neighborhoods (provision of public goods, income levels, human capital and employment structure, etc.). Our results do not confirm the idea that only shocks are relevant to explain temporary forms of poverty. The type and quality of entry on the job market, as well as the features of the residence neighborhood, turn out to be equally relevant in the analysis of poverty dynamics. These results suggest that the spatial « inequality » dimension should be added to analyses on income and poverty transition dynamics. _________________________________ (français) Du fait du manque de données de panel, il existe peu d’études sur la dynamique de la pauvreté dans les pays en développement. De plus, il est difficile d’en tirer des conclusions générales en raison des différences méthodologiques entre elles. Notre étude sur la dynamique de la pauvreté urbaine à Madagascar et au Pérou est basée sur un large panel de ménages couvrant la période 1997-1999. En appliquant des méthodes rigoureusement comparables dans les deux pays, nous cherchons à identifier les traits généraux et spécifiques de la pauvreté chronique et transitoire. L’importance des transitions de pauvreté, ainsi que les caractéristiques des ménages pauvres (de manière transitoire ou chronique), sont d’abord étudiées. A l’aide d’un modèle logit multinomial, on mesure ensuite la contribution à la pauvreté chronique et aux transitions de pauvreté (entrées/sorties) de trois groupes de variables : caractéristiques des ménages (démographiques, capital humain et physique) ; chocs subis par les ménages (démographiques et liés au marché du travail) ; variables géographiques liées au voisinage (fourniture de biens publics, niveau de revenu, capital humain et structure de l’emploi, etc.). Nos résultats infirment la thèse selon laquelle les chocs seraient la seule variable explicative des formes transitoires de pauvreté. Le mode d’entrée sur le marché du travail, ainsi que les caractéristiques du voisinage apparaissent également pertinentes pour l’analyse de la dynamique de la pauvreté. Nos résultats suggèrent que la dimension liée à l’inégalité spatiale mériterait d’être analysée dans les analyses sur les dynamiques de pauvreté et de revenus.

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Paper provided by DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation) in its series Working Papers with number DT/2003/03.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: May 2003
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Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200303
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