IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v67y2015icp490-505.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Poverty Trap Rural Malagasy Households?

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas, Anne-Claire
  • Gaspart, Frédéric

Abstract

This paper contributes to the understanding of the persistently high poverty rates in rural Madagascar. It tests the existence of poverty traps thanks to a Markovian poverty transition model where past poverty is allowed to have either a slope or an intercept effect on the current poverty risk. An original and large household panel data survey covering the period 1996–2006 is used. Results clearly indicate that poverty is creating a vicious circle leading to a poverty trap. These results encourage the implementation of short-run poverty reduction policies including safety nets, cash transfers, cash for work, and short term credits.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas, Anne-Claire & Gaspart, Frédéric, 2015. "Does Poverty Trap Rural Malagasy Households?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 490-505.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:67:y:2015:i:c:p:490-505
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.11.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X14003702
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claire Gondard-Delcroix, 2009. "Risque, Pluriactivite Rurale et Dynamiques de Pauvrete en Milieu Rural Malgache," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 77-101.
    2. Marcel Fafchamps, 2003. "Rural Poverty, Risk and Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3127, February.
    3. Quisumbing, Agnes R. & Haddad, Lawrence & Pena, Christine, 2001. "Are women overrepresented among the poor? An analysis of poverty in 10 developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 225-269, October.
    4. anonymous, 2000. "Brochure helps consumers understand credit laws," Financial Update, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jul, pages 1-5.
    5. Quisumbing, Agnes R. & Pandolfelli, Lauren, 2010. "Promising Approaches to Address the Needs of Poor Female Farmers: Resources, Constraints, and Interventions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 581-592, April.
    6. Dercon, Stefan & Christiaensen, Luc, 2011. "Consumption risk, technology adoption and poverty traps: Evidence from Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 159-173, November.
    7. Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
    8. Duncan, Greg J & Gustafsson, Bjorn & Hauser, Richard & Schmauss, Gunther & Messinger, Hans & Muffels, Ruud & Nolan, Brian, 1993. "Poverty Dynamics in Eight Countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 6(3), pages 215-234.
    9. Francesco Devicienti, 2002. "Poverty persistence in Britain: A multivariate analysis using the BHPS, 1991–1997," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 77(1), pages 307-340, December.
    10. Cesar Calvo & Stefan Dercon, 2007. "Chronic Poverty and All That: The Measurement of Poverty over Time," CSAE Working Paper Series 2007-04, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4372 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004. "Modelling low income transitions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 593-610.
    13. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2008. "The Dynamics of Social Assistance Receipt: Measurement and Modelling Issues, with an Application to Britain," IZA Discussion Papers 3765, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    14. Verbeek, Marno & Nijman, Theo, 1992. "Testing for Selectivity Bias in Panel Data Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(3), pages 681-703, August.
    15. Lorenzo Cappellari, 2007. "Earnings mobility among Italian low-paid workers," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 20(2), pages 465-482, April.
    16. Martin Biewen, 2009. "Measuring state dependence in individual poverty histories when there is feedback to employment status and household composition," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1095-1116.
    17. Jean-Étienne Bidou & Isabelle Droy, 2007. "Pauvreté et vulnérabilité alimentaire dans le Sud de Madagascar : les apports d'une approche diachronique sur un panel de ménages," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(4), pages 45-64.
    18. Ann Huff Stevens, 1999. "Climbing out of Poverty, Falling Back in: Measuring the Persistence of Poverty Over Multiple Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(3), pages 557-588.
    19. Buvinic, Mayra & Gupta, Geeta Rao, 1997. "Female-Headed Households and Female-Maintained Families: Are They Worth Targeting to Reduce Poverty in Developing Countries?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 259-280, January.
    20. Medeiros, Marcelo & Costa, Joana, 2008. "Is There a Feminization of Poverty in Latin America?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 115-127, January.
    21. Dercon, Stefan (ed.), 2004. "Insurance Against Poverty," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199276837.
    22. Hulme, David & Shepherd, Andrew, 2003. "Conceptualizing Chronic Poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 403-423, March.
    23. Pablo Antolín & Thai-Thanh Dang & Howard Oxley, 1999. "Poverty Dynamics in Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 212, OECD Publishing.
    24. Christine Moser & Christopher Barrett & Bart Minten, 2009. "Spatial integration at multiple scales: rice markets in Madagascar," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(3), pages 281-294, May.
    25. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, January.
    26. Bob Baulch & John Hoddinott, 2000. "Economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 1-24.
    27. Lipton, Michael & Ravallion, Martin, 1995. "Poverty and policy," Handbook of Development Economics,in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 41, pages 2551-2657 Elsevier.
    28. FAYE Ousmane & ISLAM Nizamul & ZULU Eliya, 2011. "Poverty dynamics in Nairobi's slums: testing for true state dependence and heterogeneity effects," LISER Working Paper Series 2011-56, LISER.
    29. Jyotsna Jalan & Martin Ravallion, 2000. "Is transient poverty different? Evidence for rural China," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 82-99.
    30. Claire Gondard-Delcroix, 2005. "Dynamiques de pauvreté en milieu rural malgache," Documents de travail 111, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    31. Anna Giraldo & Enrico Rettore & Ugo Trivellato, 2002. "The persistence of poverty: true state dependence or unobserved heterogeneity? Some evidence from the Italian Survey on Household Income and Wealth," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B2-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
    32. Rafael Perez Ribas & Ana Flávia Machado & André Braz Golgher, 2006. "Fluctuations and persistence in poverty: a transient-chronic decomposition model for pseudo-panel data," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td290, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    33. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5443 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Christopher Barrett & Paswel Phiri Marenya & John Mcpeak & Bart Minten & Festus Murithi & Willis Oluoch-Kosura & Frank Place & Jean Claude Randrianarisoa & Jhon Rasambainarivo & Justine Wangila, 2006. "Welfare dynamics in rural Kenya and Madagascar," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 248-277.
    35. Minten, Bart & Barrett, Christopher B., 2008. "Agricultural Technology, Productivity, and Poverty in Madagascar," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 797-822, May.
    36. Stefan Dercon & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2007. "Moving On, Staying Behind, Getting Lost: Lessons on poverty mobility from longitudinal data," Economics Series Working Papers GPRG-WPS-075, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    37. Flore Gubert & Anne-Sophie Robilliard, 2008. "Risk and Schooling Decisions in Rural Madagascar: A Panel Data-Analysis," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 17(2), pages 207-238, March.
    38. Islam, Nizamul & Shimeles, Abebe, 2007. "Poverty dynamics in Ethiopia: state dependence," Working Papers in Economics 260, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    39. David Stifel & Bart Minten, 2008. "Isolation and agricultural productivity," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 1-15, July.
    40. Catherine Porter & Natalie Na¨iri Quinn, 2008. "Intertemporal Poverty Measurement: Tradeoffs and Policy Options," CSAE Working Paper Series 2008-21, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    41. Mills, Bradford F. & del Ninno, Carlo & Rajemsison, Harivelo, 2004. "Commune Shocks, Household Assets, and Economic Well-Being in Madagascar," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 19956, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    42. Gary Chamberlain, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 225-238.
    43. Claire Gondard-Delcroix, 2009. "Risque, Pluriactivité et Dynamique de Pauvreté: Une Application en Milieu Rural Malgache," Post-Print hal-00257590, HAL.
    44. anonymous, 2000. "Consumer privacy protections finalized," Financial Update, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jul, pages 1-6.
    45. van Osselaer, Stijn M J & Alba, Joseph W, 2000. " Consumer Learning and Brand Equity," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 1-16, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:11:p:4316-:d:184380 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    poverty traps; poverty dynamics; panel data; rural Madagascar; Markov chain;

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:67:y:2015:i:c:p:490-505. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.