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Fluctuations and persistence in poverty: a transient-chronic decomposition model for pseudo-panel data


  • Rafael Perez Ribas


  • Ana Flávia Machado


  • André Braz Golgher



Although many studies addressed poverty issues, very few of then did analyze the transient or persistent nature of this phenomenon. Encouraged by this lack of dynamic poverty analyses, the objective of this paper is to evaluate which features determine the relative position and the dynamics of the destitution state of the individual. Due to the scarcity of panel surveys in Brazil, it was used a pseudo-panel obtained from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD/IBGE) database in this study. With these data, the state permanence and the state transience probabilities were estimated in a Markov matrix with the application of a bivariate probit model with endogenous switching for grouped data. It was chosen as the welfare indicator the per capita household income, which was analyzed in relation to a relative poverty line. Moreover, in order to verify the sensibility of the parameters estimated in the econometric analysis, distinct poverty lines were used and also different assumptions of household scale economies and of intrahousehold relative costs were made. The transient-chronic analysis is based on the distinction between stationary and transient components of intertemporal propensity to poverty. The results enabled to identify which groups in the population were especially sensitive to the chronic and to the transient types of poverty.

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  • Rafael Perez Ribas & Ana Flávia Machado & André Braz Golgher, 2006. "Fluctuations and persistence in poverty: a transient-chronic decomposition model for pseudo-panel data," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td290, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td290

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas, Anne-Claire & Gaspart, Frédéric, 2015. "Does Poverty Trap Rural Malagasy Households?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 490-505.
    2. Marinho, Emerson & Araújo, Jair, 2010. "Pobreza e o Sistema de Seguridade Social Rural no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 64(2), June.
    3. Marinho, Emerson & Linhares, Fabricio & Campelo, Guaracyane, 2011. "Os Programas de Transferência de Renda do Governo Impactam a Pobreza no Brasil?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 65(3), September.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10594 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    chronic poverty; transient poverty; state persistence; state transition; endogenous switching probit model; pseudo-panel; Brazil;

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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