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Fluctuations and persistence in poverty: a transient-chronic decomposition model for pseudo-panel data

Listed author(s):
  • Rafael Perez Ribas

    (Cedeplar-UFMG)

  • Ana Flávia Machado

    (Cedeplar-UFMG)

  • André Braz Golgher

    (Cedeplar-UFMG)

Although many studies addressed poverty issues, very few of then did analyze the transient or persistent nature of this phenomenon. Encouraged by this lack of dynamic poverty analyses, the objective of this paper is to evaluate which features determine the relative position and the dynamics of the destitution state of the individual. Due to the scarcity of panel surveys in Brazil, it was used a pseudo-panel obtained from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD/IBGE) database in this study. With these data, the state permanence and the state transience probabilities were estimated in a Markov matrix with the application of a bivariate probit model with endogenous switching for grouped data. It was chosen as the welfare indicator the per capita household income, which was analyzed in relation to a relative poverty line. Moreover, in order to verify the sensibility of the parameters estimated in the econometric analysis, distinct poverty lines were used and also different assumptions of household scale economies and of intrahousehold relative costs were made. The transient-chronic analysis is based on the distinction between stationary and transient components of intertemporal propensity to poverty. The results enabled to identify which groups in the population were especially sensitive to the chronic and to the transient types of poverty.

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Paper provided by Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais in its series Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG with number td290.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td290
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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Bourguignon, Francois & Goh, Chor-ching & Kim, Dae Il, 2004. "Estimating individual vulnerability to poverty with pseudo-panel data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3375, The World Bank.
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  10. Verbeek, Marno & Nijman, Theo, 1992. "Can Cohort Data Be Treated as Genuine Panel Data?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 9-23.
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  18. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
  19. Goodhand, Jonathan, 2003. "Enduring Disorder and Persistent Poverty: A Review of the Linkages Between War and Chronic Poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 629-646, March.
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  21. Anna Giraldo & Enrico Rettore & Ugo Trivellato, 2002. "The persistence of poverty: true state dependence or unobserved heterogeneity? Some evidence from the Italian Survey on Household Income and Wealth," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B2-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  22. Verbeek, M.J.C.M. & Nijman, T.E., 1990. "Can cohort data be treated as genuine panel data?," Discussion Paper 1990-64, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  23. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 1998. "Transient Poverty in Postreform Rural China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 338-357, June.
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  25. Kapur Mehta, Aasha & Shah, Amita, 2003. "Chronic Poverty in India: Incidence, Causes and Policies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 491-511, March.
  26. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
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