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Estimating individual vulnerability to poverty with pseudo-panel data

Author

Listed:
  • Bourguignon, Francois
  • Goh, Chor-ching
  • Kim, Dae Il

Abstract

This paper presents an original method to study individual earning dynamics using repeated cross-sectional data. Because panel data of individuals are seldom available in developing countries, it is difficult to study individual earning dynamics and related issues such as the propensity of earners to fall into poverty or vulnerability to poverty because of changes in earning. This paper shows that under the assumption that individual earning dynamics obey some basic properties and follow a simple stochastic process, the main parameters of this process can be recovered from repeated cross sectional data. The knowledge of these parameters then permits simulation of the earning dynamics of an individual, and estimate other measures of interest, such as an individual's vulnerability to poverty. The results show that model parameters recovered from pseudo-panels approximate reasonably well those estimated directly from a true panel. Moreover, implications of the model, in this case pseudo-panel measures of vulnerability to poverty, reflect closely those based on actual panel data.

Suggested Citation

  • Bourguignon, Francois & Goh, Chor-ching & Kim, Dae Il, 2004. "Estimating individual vulnerability to poverty with pseudo-panel data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3375, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3375
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Revenga, Ana, 1997. "Employment and Wage Effects of Trade Liberalization: The Case of Mexican Manufacturing," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages 20-43, July.
    2. Sebastián Edwards & Alejandra Cox de Edwards, 1996. "Trade Liberalization and Unemployment: Policy Issues and Evidence from Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 33(99), pages 227-250.
    3. Deaton, Angus & Paxson, Christina, 1994. "Intertemporal Choice and Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 437-467, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cesar Calvo & Stefan Dercon, 2005. "Measuring Individual Vulnerability," Economics Series Working Papers 229, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Stefan Dercon (QEH), "undated". "Vulnerability: a micro perspective," QEH Working Papers qehwps149, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    3. Duclos, Jean-Yves & Araar, Abdelkrim & Giles, John, 2010. "Chronic and transient poverty: Measurement and estimation, with evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 266-277, March.
    4. Stefan Dercon (QEH), "undated". "Risk, Growth and Poverty: what do we know, what do we need to know?," QEH Working Papers qehwps148, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    5. Jose Cuesta & Hugo Ñopo & Georgina Pizzolitto, 2011. "Using Pseudo‐Panels To Measure Income Mobility In Latin America," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 57(2), pages 224-246, June.
    6. Florent Bresson & Jean-Yves Duclos, 2015. "Intertemporal poverty comparisons," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 44(3), pages 567-616, March.
    7. Marco Stampini & Marcos Robles & Mayra Sáenz & Pablo Ibarrarán & Nadin Medellín, 2016. "Poverty, vulnerability, and the middle class in Latin America," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-44, December.
    8. Rafael Perez Ribas & Ana Flávia Machado, 2007. "Distinguishing Chronic Poverty from Transient Poverty in Brazil: Developing a Model for Pseudo-Panel Data," Working Papers 36, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    9. Bronfman, Javier & Floro, Maria, 2014. "How well has the Social Protection Scheme Reduced Vulnerability in Chile?," MPRA Paper 63255, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Rafael Perez Ribas & Ana Flávia Machado & André Braz Golgher, 2006. "Fluctuations and persistence in poverty: a transient-chronic decomposition model for pseudo-panel data," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td290, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    11. Hugo Ñopo & Giorgina Pizzolitto & José Cuesta, 2007. "Usando pseudopaneles para medir la movilidad del ingreso en América," Research Department Publications 4558, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    12. Bronfman, Javier, 2014. "Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty in Chile Using the National Socio Economic Characterization Panel Survey for 1996, 2001, 2006," MPRA Paper 62689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Dang, Hai-Anh & Lanjouw, Peter & Luoto, Jill & McKenzie, David, 2014. "Using repeated cross-sections to explore movements into and out of poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 112-128.
    14. Perez, Victor, 2015. "Moving in and out of poverty in Mexico: What can we learn from pseudo-panel methods?," ISER Working Paper Series 2015-16, Institute for Social and Economic Research.

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