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Chronic and Transient Poverty: Measurement and Estimation, with Evidence from China

  • Duclos, Jean-Yves

    ()

    (Université Laval)

  • Araar, Abdelkrim

    ()

    (Université Laval)

  • Giles, John T.

    ()

    (World Bank)

The paper contributes to the measurement of poverty and vulnerability in three ways. First, we propose a new approach to separating poverty into chronic and transient components. Second, we provide corrections for the statistical biases introduced when using a small number of periods to estimate the importance of vulnerability and transient poverty. Third, we apply these tools to the measurement of chronic and transient poverty in China using a rich panel data set that extends over approximately 17 years. We find that alternative measurement techniques yield significantly different estimates of the relative importance of chronic and transient poverty, and that precision of estimates is enhanced with simple statistical corrections.

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File URL: http://ftp.iza.org/dp2078.pdf
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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2078.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Journal of Development Economics, 2010, 91 (2), 266-277
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2078
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  1. Davidson, R. & Duclos, J.-Y., 1998. "Statistical Inference for Stochastic Dominance and for the Measurement of Poverty and Inequality," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 98a14, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
  2. Christiaensen, Luc. J. & Subbarao, Kalanidhi, 2004. "Toward an understanding of household vulnerability in rural Kenya," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3326, The World Bank.
  3. Gaiha, Raghav, 1988. "Income Mobility in Rural India," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(2), pages 279-302, January.
  4. Satya Ranjan Chakravarty, 1983. "Ethically Flexible Measures of Poverty," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 74-85, February.
  5. Ravallion, Martin, 1988. "Expected Poverty under Risk-Induced Welfare Variability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1171-82, December.
  6. Shorrocks, Anthony F, 1995. "Revisiting the Sen Poverty Index," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1225-30, September.
  7. Breen, Richard & Moisio, Pasi, 2003. "Poverty dynamics corrected for measurement error," ISER Working Paper Series 2003-17, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  8. Sen, Amartya K, 1976. "Poverty: An Ordinal Approach to Measurement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 219-31, March.
  9. Lipton, Michael & Ravallion, Martin, 1995. "Poverty and policy," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 41, pages 2551-2657 Elsevier.
  10. Ligon, Ethan & Laura Schechter, 2002. "Measuring Vulnerability," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 128, Royal Economic Society.
  11. Chen, Shaohua & Ravallion, Martin, 1996. "Data in transition: Assessing rural living standards in Southern China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-56.
  12. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 1998. "Transient Poverty in Postreform Rural China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 338-357, June.
  13. Bob Baulch & John Hoddinott, 2000. "Economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 1-24.
  14. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2002. "Inverse probability weighted M-estimators for sample selection, attrition and stratification," CeMMAP working papers CWP11/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  15. Aaberge, Rolf & Mogstad, Magne, 2007. "On the Definition and Measurement of Chronic Poverty," IZA Discussion Papers 2659, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
  17. Joan R. Rodgers & John L. Rodgers, 1993. "Chronic Poverty in the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 28(1), pages 25-54.
  18. Blakorby, Charles & Donaldson, David, 1980. "Ethical Indices for the Measurement of Poverty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 1053-60, May.
  19. Bourguignon, Francois & Goh, Chor-ching & Kim, Dae Il, 2004. "Estimating individual vulnerability to poverty with pseudo-panel data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3375, The World Bank.
  20. Atkinson, Tony & Cantillon, Bea & Marlier, Eric & Nolan, Brian, 2002. "Social Indicators: The EU and Social Inclusion," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199253494, March.
  21. Benjamin, Dwayne & Brandt, Loren & Giles, John, 2005. "The Evolution of Income Inequality in Rural China," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(4), pages 769-824, July.
  22. Cesar Calvo & Stefan Dercon, 2005. "Measuring Individual Vulnerability," Economics Series Working Papers 229, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  23. Gustafsson, Bjorn & Shi, Li, 2002. "Income inequality within and across counties in rural China 1988 and 1995," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 179-204, October.
  24. Guillermo Cruces & Quentin T. Wodon, 2003. "Transient and chronic poverty in turbulent times: Argentina 1995-2002," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 9(3), pages 1-12.
  25. Asep Suryahadi & Sudarno Sumarto, 2003. "Poverty and Vulnerability in Indonesia Before and After the Economic Crisis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 45-64, 03.
  26. Albert Park, 2006. "Risk and Household Grain Management in Developing Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(514), pages 1088-1115, October.
  27. Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
  28. Atkinson, Anthony B., 1970. "On the measurement of inequality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 244-263, September.
  29. Ravallion, Martin & Shaohua Chen, 2004. "China's (uneven) progress against poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3408, The World Bank.
  30. Rendtel, Ulrich & Langeheine, Rolf & Berntsen, Roland, 1998. "The Estimation of Poverty Dynamics Using Different Measurements of Household Income," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 44(1), pages 81-98, March.
  31. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:9:y:2003:i:3:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. John Giles & Kyeongwon Yoo, 2007. "Precautionary Behavior, Migrant Networks, and Household Consumption Decisions: An Empirical Analysis Using Household Panel Data from Rural China," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 534-551, August.
  33. Jyotsna Jalan & Martin Ravallion, 1998. "Geographic Poverty Traps?," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 86, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
  34. Takashi Kurosaki, 2006. "The measurement of transient poverty: Theory and application to Pakistan," Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 325-345, December.
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