Toward an understanding of household vulnerability in rural Kenya
Considerations of risk and vulnerability are key to understanding the dynamics of poverty. This study conceives vulnerability as expected poverty and illustrates a methodology to empirically assess household vulnerability using pseudo panel data derived from repeated cross sections augmented with historical information on shocks. Application of the methodology to data from rural Kenya shows that in 1994 rural households faced on average a 40 percent chance of becoming poor in the future. Households in arid areas that experience large rainfall volatility appear more vulnerable than those in non-arid areas, where malaria emerges as a key risk factor. Idiosyncratic shocks also cause non-negligible consumption volatility. Possession of cattle and sheep/goats appears ineffective in protecting consumption against covariant shocks, though sheep/goat help reduce the effect of idiosyncratic shocks, especially in arid zones. Of the policy instruments simulated, interventions directed at reducing the incidence of malaria, promoting adult literacy, and improving market accessibility hold most promise to reduce vulnerability.
|Date of creation:||01 Jun 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433|
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Deaton, Angus, 1985. "Panel data from time series of cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 109-126.
- Fafchamps, Marcel & Udry, Christopher & Czukas, Katherine, 1998.
"Drought and saving in West Africa: are livestock a buffer stock?,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 273-305, April.
- Marcel Fafchamps & Chris Udry & Katherine Czukas, . "Drought and Saving in West Africa: Are Livestock a Buffer Stock?," Working Papers 97013, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Jonathan Morduch, 1995.
"Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 103-114, Summer.
- Morduch, J., 1995. "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing," Papers 512, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
- Jonathan Morduch, 1995. "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1727, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Haddad, Lawrence & Hoddinott, John & Alderman, Harold & DEC, 1994. "Intrahousehold resource allocation : an overview," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1255, The World Bank.
- Ligon, Ethan & Schechter, Laura, 2002. "Measuring Vulnerability: The Director's Cut," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Stefan Dercon, 2003.
"Growth and Shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia,"
Economics Series Working Papers
WPS/2003-12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Ligon, Ethan & Laura Schechter, 2002.
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002
128, Royal Economic Society.
- Udry, Christopher, 1995. "Risk and Saving in Northern Nigeria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1287-1300, December.
- Townsend, R.M., 1991.
"Risk and Insurance in Village India,"
University of Chicago - Economics Research Center
91-3, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
- Robert M. Townsend, . "Risk and Insurance in Village India," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 91-3a, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Fishburn, Peter C, 1977. "Mean-Risk Analysis with Risk Associated with Below-Target Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 116-26, March.
- Steven Were Omamo, 1998. "Transport Costs and Smallholder Cropping Choices: An Application to Siaya District, Kenya," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 116-123.
- Glewwe, Paul & Hall, Gillette, 1998. "Are some groups more vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks than others? Hypothesis tests based on panel data from Peru," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 181-206, June.
- Christopher B. Barrett & Francis Chabari & DeeVon Bailey & Peter D. Little & D. Layne Coppock, 2003.
"Livestock Pricing in the Northern Kenyan Rangelands,"
Journal of African Economies,
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 12(2), pages 127-155, June.
- Barrett, Christopher B. & Chabari, Francis & Bailey, DeeVon & Coppock, D. Layne & Little, Peter D., 2001. "Livestock Pricing In The Northern Kenyan Rangelands," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20460, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Christiaensen, Luc & Demery, Lionel & Paternostro, Stefano, 2003. "Reforms, Remoteness and Risk in Africa: Understanding Inequality and Poverty during the 1990s," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Christiaensen, Luc J.M. & Boisvert, Richard N., 2000. "On Measuring Household Food Vulnerability: Case Evidence from Northern Mali," Working Papers 127676, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
- Grimard, Franque, 1997. "Household consumption smoothing through ethnic ties: evidence from Cote d'Ivoire," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 391-422, August.
- Robert Holzmann & Steen Jørgensen, 2001.
"Social Risk Management: A New Conceptual Framework for Social Protection, and Beyond,"
International Tax and Public Finance,
Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 529-556, August.
- Robert Holzmann & Steen Jorgensen, 2000. "Social risk management : a new conceptual framework for social protection and beyond," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 21314, The World Bank.
- Kochar, Anjini, 1995. "Explaining Household Vulnerability to Idiosyncratic Income Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 159-64, May.
- Hanan G. Jacoby & Emmanuel Skoufias, 1997. "Risk, Financial Markets, and Human Capital in a Developing Country," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(3), pages 311-335.
- Frank Ellis, 1998. "Household strategies and rural livelihood diversification," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 1-38.
- C. Barrett & K. Smith & P. Box, 2001. "Not Necessarily In The Same Boat: Heterogeneous Risk Assessment Among East African Pastoralists," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 1-30.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3326. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.