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The persistence of poverty: true state dependence or unobserved heterogeneity? Some evidence from the Italian Survey on Household Income and Wealth

  • Anna Giraldo

    (Dip. di Scienze Statistiche, Univ. di Padova)

  • Enrico Rettore

    (Dip. di Scienze Statistiche, Univ. di Padova)

  • Ugo Trivellato

    (Dip. di Scienze Statistiche, Univ. di Padova)

Evidence from several countries is that any household experiencing poverty today is much more likely to experience it again, which may be due to both unobserved heterogeneity (UH) and true state dependence (TSD). We point out that in this context there are two sources of UH: (1) the household ability to obtain income at a specific time period and (2) the way in which this ability evolves from that time period onwards. We test for TSD using a panel from Italy. After testing for the ignorability of the massive attrition plaguing the panel and accepting it, we do not find any sign of TSD.

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Paper provided by International Conferences on Panel Data in its series 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 with number B2-1.

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Date of creation: Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpd:pd2002:b2-1
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  1. Andrea Brandolini, 1999. "The Distribution of Personal Income in Post-War Italy: Source Description, Data Quality, and the Time Pattern of Income Inequality," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 350, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Francesco Devicienti, 2011. "Estimating poverty persistence in Britain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 657-686, May.
  3. Duncan, Greg J, et al, 1993. "Poverty Dynamics in Eight Countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 215-34.
  4. Ann Huff Stevens, 1999. "Climbing out of Poverty, Falling Back in: Measuring the Persistence of Poverty Over Multiple Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(3), pages 557-588.
  5. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jemkins, 2002. "Who Stays Poor? Who Becomes Poor? Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C60-C67, March.
  6. Arellano, M. & Honore, B., 2000. "Panel Data Models: Some Recent Developments," Papers 0016, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  7. Stewart, M.B. & Swaffield, J.K., 1997. "Low Pay Dynamics and Transition Probabilities," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 495, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  8. Lorenzo Cappellari, 1999. "Low-pay transitions and attrition bias in Italy : An analysis using simulation based estimation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 532, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  9. Gary Chamberlain, 1982. "Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 0913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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