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The Persistence of Poverty in Rural China: Applying an Ordered Probit and a Hazard Approach


  • Glauben, Thomas
  • Herzfeld, Thomas
  • Wang, Xiaobing


The present study investigates the analysis of poverty persistence of Chinese farm households in the well-off Zhejiang province in the southeast. We firstly apply an ordered probit model examining household, farm, and regional characteristics affecting the probability that households are chronically poor. In addition, we apply a hazard approach to identify the risk of falling into and climbing out of poverty. Results indicate that there are increasing chances to climb out of poverty over time, and that the risk of falling into poverty seems to decrease after the household spent some time outside poverty.

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  • Glauben, Thomas & Herzfeld, Thomas & Wang, Xiaobing, 2006. "The Persistence of Poverty in Rural China: Applying an Ordered Probit and a Hazard Approach," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25249, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae06:25249

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jyotsna Jalan & Martin Ravallion, 2000. "Is transient poverty different? Evidence for rural China," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 82-99.
    2. Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
    3. Gottschald, Peter T, 1982. "Earnings Mobility: Permanent Change or Transitory Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(3), pages 450-456, August.
    4. Hansen, Jörgen & Wahlberg, Roger, 2004. "Poverty Persistence in Sweden," CEPR Discussion Papers 4539, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Jonathan Morduch & Terry Sicular, 2002. "Rethinking Inequality Decomposition, With Evidence from Rural China," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(476), pages 93-106, January.
    6. Stevens, Ann Huff, 1994. "The Dynamics of Poverty Spells: Updating Bane and Ellwood," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 34-37, May.
    7. Francesco Devicienti, 2011. "Estimating poverty persistence in Britain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 657-686, May.
    8. Yao, Shujie, 2000. "Economic Development and Poverty Reduction in China over 20 Years of Reforms," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(3), pages 447-474, April.
    9. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-138, February.
    10. McCulloch, Neil & Calandrino, Michele, 2003. "Vulnerability and Chronic Poverty in Rural Sichuan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 611-628, March.
    11. Ann Huff Stevens, 1999. "Climbing out of Poverty, Falling Back in: Measuring the Persistence of Poverty Over Multiple Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(3), pages 557-588.
    12. Jyotsna Jalan & Martin Ravallion, 1998. "Geographic Poverty Traps?," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 86, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
    13. Hansen, Jörgen & Wahlberg, Roger, 2004. "Poverty Persistence in Sweden," IZA Discussion Papers 1209, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    14. Jarvis, Sarah & Jenkins, Stephen P, 1998. "How Much Income Mobility Is There in Britain?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 428-443, March.
    15. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jemkins, 2002. "Who Stays Poor? Who Becomes Poor? Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages 60-67, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bogale, Ayalneh & Korf, Benedikt, 2009. "Analysis of poverty and its covariates among smallholder farmers in the eastern Hararghe highlands of Ethiopia," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51469, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Katsushi S. Imai & Jing You, 2011. "Poverty Dynamics of Households in Rural China: Identifying Multiple Pathways for Poverty Transition," Discussion Paper Series DP2011-35, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.

    More about this item


    Poverty persistence; China; rural population; hazard analysis; dynamics; Food Security and Poverty; C23; D1; I32; R29;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • R29 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Other


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