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Structural and stochastic transitions of poverty using household panel data in India

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  • Swati Dutta

Abstract

The paper examines whether the poverty transition or poverty persistency in India, as well as in Indian rural states, is due to state dependence or unobserved heterogeneity. Using panel data from the India Human Development Survey for 2005 and 2012, the study found that structural chronic poverty is high in Bihar, Odisha, Maharashtra, and Uttar Pradesh. Furthermore, general caste and scheduled tribe households have achieved upward mobility due to structural reasons whereas other backward class households have made a stochastic transition and come out of poverty. The bivariate Probit model suggests that there exists a state dependence of the probability of being poor; meaning that past poverty experience does matter in determining the present poverty status of a given household in India. The findings also indicate that female education is one of the important indicators for moving out of poverty. Hence, a crucial policy decision is needed for reducing poverty in a more sustainable way, which will include a targeted social safety net program along with improving the skill level of the household. 本文分析了印度和印度农村邦的贫困过渡或贫困持续是否是由国家依赖或未发现的异质性造成的。通过使用2005年和2012年印度人类发展(India Human Development)调查的面板数据,发现比哈尔邦(Bihar)、 奥里萨邦(Odisha)、马哈拉施特拉邦(Maharashtra) 和北方邦(Uttar Pradesh)的结构性长期贫困程度高。先进种姓(Further general caste)和表列部落家庭因结构性原因得以向上流动,而其他落后阶层家庭则完成了随机性过渡并摆脱贫困。双变量Probit模型暗示,存在一种关于贫困可能性的国家依赖;意指以往的贫困经历的确在决定印度特定家庭当前贫困状态一事中发挥重要作用。研究发现还显示,妇女教育是摆脱贫困的最重要指标之一。因此,需要该关键政策来以更可持续的方式进行减贫,这将包括精准社会安全网计划,同时提高家庭的技能程度。 El documento examina si la transición de la pobreza o la persistencia de la pobreza en la India, así como en los estados rurales de la India, se debe a la dependencia estatal o la heterogeneidad no observada. Utilizando datos de panel de la encuesta de Desarrollo Humano de India para 2005 y 2012, el estudio encontró que la pobreza crónica estructural es alta en Bihar, Odisha, Maharashtra y Uttar Pradesh. Otros hogares de casta general y tribu programada han logrado una movilidad ascendente debido a razones estructurales, mientras que otros hogares de clases atrasadas han hecho una transición estocástica y han salido de la pobreza. El modelo Probit bivariado sugiere que existe una dependencia estatal de la probabilidad de ser pobre; lo que significa que la experiencia pasada de pobreza sí importa para determinar el estado de pobreza actual de un hogar determinado en la India. Los resultados también indican que la educación femenina es uno de los indicadores más importantes para salir de la pobreza. Por lo tanto, esta política crucial es necesaria para reducir la pobreza de una manera más sostenible, que incluirá un programa de red de seguridad social específico junto con la mejora del nivel de habilidades del hogar.

Suggested Citation

  • Swati Dutta, 2021. "Structural and stochastic transitions of poverty using household panel data in India," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(1), pages 8-31, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:povpop:v:13:y:2021:i:1:p:8-31
    DOI: 10.1002/pop4.299
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    1. Rishi Kumar, 2022. "Household poverty dynamics in tribal Madhya Pradesh, India: A case study of 54 villages," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(2), pages 184-203, June.

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