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The Dynamics of Social Assistance Receipt: Measurement and Modelling Issues, with an Application to Britain

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  • Cappellari, Lorenzo

    () (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

  • Jenkins, Stephen P.

    () (London School of Economics)

Abstract

We model the dynamics of social assistance benefit receipt in Britain using data from the British Household Panel Survey, waves 1–15. First, we discuss definitions of social assistance benefit receipt, and present information about the trends between 1991 and 2005 in the receipt of social assistance benefits, and in annual rates of transition into and out of receipt. Second, we review potential multivariate modelling approaches especially the dynamic random effects probit models that are used in our empirical analysis and, third, discuss sample selection criteria and explanatory variables. Fourth, we present our regression estimation estimates and interpret them. The final section contains a summary of the substantive results, and highlights some lessons concerning application of the analysis for other countries and some methodological issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2008. "The Dynamics of Social Assistance Receipt: Measurement and Modelling Issues, with an Application to Britain," IZA Discussion Papers 3765, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3765
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004. "Modelling low income transitions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 593-610.
    2. Michael J. Boskin & Frederick C. Nold, 1975. "A Markov Model of Turnover in Aid to Families with Dependent Children," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 10(4), pages 467-481.
    3. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2008. "Estimating low pay transition probabilities accounting for endogenous selection mechanisms," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 57(2), pages 165-186.
    4. Stewart, Mark B & Swaffield, Joanna K, 1999. "Low Pay Dynamics and Transition Probabilities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(261), pages 23-42, February.
    5. Martin Biewen, 2004. "Measuring State Dependence in Individual Poverty Status: Are there Feedback Effects to Employment Decisions and Household Composition?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 429, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Jorgen Hansen & Magnus Lofstrom, 2011. "Immigrant–Native Differences in Welfare Participation: The Role of Entry and Exit Rates," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 412-442, July.
    7. Mark B. Stewart, 2002. "The Inter-related Dynamics of Unemployment and Low Pay," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B2-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
    8. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
    9. Enberg, John & Gottschalk, Peter & Wolf, Douglas, 1990. "A random-effects logit model of work-welfare transitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 63-75.
    10. Marco Francesconi & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2007. "The Socioeconomic Consequences of "In-Work" Benefit Reform for British Lone Mothers," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 42(1).
    11. Paul Gregg & Susan Harkness & Sarah Smith, 2009. "Welfare Reform and Lone Parents in the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(535), pages 38-65, February.
    12. Jorgen Hansen & Magnus Lofstrom, 2003. "Immigrant Assimilation and Welfare Participation Do Immigrants Assimilate Into or Out of Welfare?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(1).
    13. Brewer, Mike & Duncan, Alan & Shephard, Andrew & Suarez, Maria Jose, 2006. "Did working families' tax credit work? The impact of in-work support on labour supply in Great Britain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 699-720, December.
    14. Hansen, Jörgen & Lofstrom, Magnus & Zhang, Xuelin, 2006. "State Dependence in Canadian Welfare Participation," IZA Discussion Papers 2266, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    15. S. Illeris & G. Akehurst, 2001. "Introduction," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-4, January.
    16. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
    17. Stephen P. Jenkins, 2000. "Modelling household income dynamics," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(4), pages 529-567.
    18. Wiji Arulampalam & Mark B. Stewart, 2009. "Simplified Implementation of the Heckman Estimator of the Dynamic Probit Model and a Comparison with Alternative Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 659-681, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas, Anne-Claire & Gaspart, Frédéric, 2015. "Does Poverty Trap Rural Malagasy Households?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 490-505.
    2. Francesco Devicienti, 2011. "Estimating poverty persistence in Britain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 657-686, May.
    3. Carlos Gradín & Olga Cantó, 2009. "Why are child poverty rates so persistently high in Spain?," Working Papers 123, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    4. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2014. "The Dynamics of Social Assistance Benefit Receipt in Britain," Research in Labor Economics,in: Safety Nets and Benefit Dependence, volume 39, pages 41-79 Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    5. Immervoll, Herwig, 2009. "Minimum-Income Benefits in OECD Countries: Policy Design, Effectiveness and Challenges," IZA Discussion Papers 4627, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. Ha Vu, 2014. "The Relationship between Labour Market Conditions and Welfare Receipt in Australia: A Stock-Flow Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90(291), pages 507-525, December.
    7. Sebastian Königs, 2013. "The Dynamics of Social Assistance Benefit Receipt in Germany: State Dependence Before and After the Hartz Reforms," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 136, OECD Publishing.
    8. Sebastian Königs, 2015. "Micro-level dynamics of social assistance receipt. Evidence from 4 European countries," Discussion Papers 797, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    9. Villa, Juan M. & Nino-Zarazua, Miguel, 2014. "Poverty dynamics and programme graduation from social protection: A transitional model for Mexico's Oportunidades programme," WIDER Working Paper Series 109, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Wiji Arulampalam & Mark B. Stewart, 2009. "Simplified Implementation of the Heckman Estimator of the Dynamic Probit Model and a Comparison with Alternative Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 659-681, October.
    11. Regina T. Riphahn & Christoph Wunder, 2016. "State dependence in welfare receipt: transitions before and after a reform," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1303-1329, June.
    12. Ayhan, Sinem H. & Pelek, Selin, 2015. "State Dependence in Welfare Benefits in a Non-Welfare Context," IZA Discussion Papers 9551, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    13. Aldashev, Alisher & Fitzenberger, Bernd, 2009. "Der Zugang von Arbeitnehmern in den Bezug von Arbeitslosengeld II," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-063, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    14. Yassine Khoudja & Lucinda Platt, 2016. "Labour market entries and exits of women from different origin countries in the UK," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1603, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    15. Immervoll, Herwig & Jenkins, Stephen P. & Königs, Sebastian, 2015. "Are Recipients of Social Assistance 'Benefit Dependent'? Concepts, Measurement and Results for Selected Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 8786, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    16. Khoudja, Yassine & Platt, Lucinda, 2016. "Labour market entries and exits of women from different origin countries in the UK," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65384, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Boll, Christina & Leppin, Julian Sebastian, 2013. "Unterwertige Beschäftigung von Akademikerinnen und Akademikern: Umfang, Ursachen, Einkommenseffekte und Beitrag zur geschlechtsspezifischen Lohnlücke," HWWI Policy Papers 75, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    social assistance; welfare benefits; dynamic random effects probit; income dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions

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