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Une évaluation économétrique des flux vers et hors de la pauvreté en Belgique

Author

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  • Van Kerm, Philippe

    (CEPS/INSTEAD, G.-D. Luxembourg)

Abstract

Cette étude présente une évaluation des flux d’entrée et de sortie de la pauvreté basée sur l’estimation d’un modèle économétrique de transition appliqué aux vagues 3 à 10 du Panel Study on Belgian Households (PSBH). La spécification du modèle prend en compte l’endogénéité potentielle du statut initial. Les estimations révèlent que cette sophistication est nécessaire car un effet de sélection endogène est présent. On observe une grande diversité des risques estimés de persistance et d’entrée dans la pauvreté. L’accès à un revenu du travail, le niveau d’éducation et l’âge sont les facteurs qui semblent influencer le plus fortement les risques de d’entrée et de sortie de la pauvreté. A l’inverse, le sexe et la nationalité ne semblent pas avoir d’effet propre substantiel. On observe également un effet de dépendance à la pauvreté : la pauvreté aujourd’hui a un effet propre important sur les chances de pauvreté demain.

Suggested Citation

  • Van Kerm, Philippe, 2004. "Une évaluation économétrique des flux vers et hors de la pauvreté en Belgique," IRISS Working Paper Series 2004-04, IRISS at CEPS/INSTEAD.
  • Handle: RePEc:irs:iriswp:2004-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bernard Delhausse & Sergio Perelman & Pierre Pestieau & Myriam Sluse, 2002. "Un nouveau portrait social de la Wallonie," Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(3), pages 7-22.
    2. Stewart, Mark B & Swaffield, Joanna K, 1999. "Low Pay Dynamics and Transition Probabilities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(261), pages 23-42, February.
    3. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jemkins, 2002. "Who Stays Poor? Who Becomes Poor? Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages 60-67, March.
    4. Atkinson, Tony & Cantillon, Bea & Marlier, Eric & Nolan, Brian, 2002. "Social Indicators: The EU and Social Inclusion," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199253494.
    5. Philippe Kerm, 2002. "How much low income turnover is there in Belgium?," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 77(1), pages 341-363, December.
    6. Philippe Van Kerm, 2002. "Une perspective longitudinale sur la pauvreté en Belgique," Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(3), pages 23-36.
    7. Cockx, Bart & Dejemeppe, Muriel, 2000. "Duration and Calendar Time Dependence of the Exit Rate out of Unemployment in Belgium. Is it True or Spurious?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000003, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
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    Cited by:

    1. Eirini Andriopoulou & Panagiotis Tsakloglou, "undated". "The determinants of poverty transitions in Europe and the role of duration dependence," DEOS Working Papers 1119, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    2. FUSCO Alessio & ISLAM Nizamul, 2012. "Understanding the drivers of low income transitions in Luxembourg," LISER Working Paper Series 2012-31, LISER.
    3. Marjan, MAES, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly in the transition from work to retirement : an empirical analysis," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008042, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    4. Maes, Marjan, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly: true or spurious?," ISER Working Paper Series 2008-24, Institute for Social and Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    pauvreté ; sélection endogène ; PSBH;

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