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Une évaluation économétrique des flux vers et hors de la pauvreté en Belgique

  • Van Kerm, Philippe

    (CEPS/INSTEAD, G.-D. Luxembourg)

Cette étude présente une évaluation des flux d’entrée et de sortie de la pauvreté basée sur l’estimation d’un modèle économétrique de transition appliqué aux vagues 3 à 10 du Panel Study on Belgian Households (PSBH). La spécification du modèle prend en compte l’endogénéité potentielle du statut initial. Les estimations révèlent que cette sophistication est nécessaire car un effet de sélection endogène est présent. On observe une grande diversité des risques estimés de persistance et d’entrée dans la pauvreté. L’accès à un revenu du travail, le niveau d’éducation et l’âge sont les facteurs qui semblent influencer le plus fortement les risques de d’entrée et de sortie de la pauvreté. A l’inverse, le sexe et la nationalité ne semblent pas avoir d’effet propre substantiel. On observe également un effet de dépendance à la pauvreté : la pauvreté aujourd’hui a un effet propre important sur les chances de pauvreté demain.

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Paper provided by IRISS at CEPS/INSTEAD in its series IRISS Working Paper Series with number 2004-04.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in 'Onze ans de vie en Belgique', edited by R. Doutrelepont, D. Mortelmans, MT Casman, 2004
Handle: RePEc:irs:iriswp:2004-04
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  1. Philippe Van Kerm, 2002. "Une perspective longitudinale sur la pauvreté en Belgique," Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(3), pages 23-36.
  2. Atkinson, Tony & Cantillon, Bea & Marlier, Eric & Nolan, Brian, 2002. "Social Indicators: The EU and Social Inclusion," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199253494, March.
  3. Philippe Kerm, 2002. "How much low income turnover is there in Belgium?," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 77(1), pages 341-363, December.
  4. Stewart, Mark B & Swaffield, Joanna K, 1999. "Low Pay Dynamics and Transition Probabilities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(261), pages 23-42, February.
  5. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jemkins, 2002. "Who Stays Poor? Who Becomes Poor? Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C60-C67, March.
  6. Bernard Delhausse & Sergio Perelman & Pierre Pestieau & Myriam Sluse, 2002. "Un nouveau portrait social de la Wallonie," Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(3), pages 7-22.
  7. Cockx, Bart & Dejemeppe, Muriel, 2000. "Duration and Calendar Time Dependence of the Exit Rate out of Unemployment in Belgium. Is it True or Spurious?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000003, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
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