IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/zewdip/9307.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing for state dependence effects in a dynamic model of male unemployment behaviour

Author

Listed:
  • Flaig, Gebhard
  • Licht, Georg
  • Steiner, Viktor

Abstract

A dynamic random effects probit model is estimated on the first six waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel to test for state dependence effects in male unemployment behaviour. Estimation of the model is based on the marginal likelihood approach. In the model an individual's unemployment probability at a given point in time within the period 1985 - 1989 depends on his labour force status in the previous period and on the cumulated duration of past unemployment. Controlling for observed and unobserved population heterogeneity, we show that there are strong state dependence effects in individual unemployment dynamics with respect to both the incidence and the duration of an individual's past unemployment. These results are compatible with the 'scar theory' of unemployment which holds that an individual's previous unemployment experience may have long-term effects because it induces a depreciation of human capital and/or acts as a screening device in employers hiring decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Flaig, Gebhard & Licht, Georg & Steiner, Viktor, 1993. "Testing for state dependence effects in a dynamic model of male unemployment behaviour," ZEW Discussion Papers 93-07, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:9307
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/29467/1/256898847.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wu, De-Min, 1973. "Alternative Tests of Independence Between Stochastic Regressors and Disturbances," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 733-750, July.
    2. Gert G. Wagner & Jürgen Schupp & Ulrich Rendtel, 1991. "The Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for Germany - Methods of Production and Management of Longitudinal Data," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 31a, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Heckman, James J & Borjas, George J, 1980. "Does Unemployment Cause Future Unemployment? Definitions, Questions and Answers from a Continuous Time Model of Heterogeneity and State Dependence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 247-283, August.
    4. Narendranathan, Wiji & Elias, Peter, 1993. "Influences of Past History on the Incidence of Youth Unemployment: Empirical Findings for the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(2), pages 161-185, May.
    5. James J. Heckman, 1981. "Heterogeneity and State Dependence," NBER Chapters,in: Studies in Labor Markets, pages 91-140 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arne Uhlendorff, 2006. "From No Pay to Low Pay and Back Again?: A Multi-State Model of Low Pay Dynamics," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 648, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Paul Ryan, 2001. "The School-to-Work Transition: A Cross-National Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 34-92, March.
    3. Biewen, Martin, 2004. "Measuring State Dependence in Individual Poverty Status: Are There Feedback Effects to Employment Decisions and Household Composition?," IZA Discussion Papers 1138, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Steiner, Viktor, 1994. "Labour market transitions and the persistence of unemployment: West Germany 1983 - 1992," ZEW Discussion Papers 94-20, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    5. Mark B. Stewart, 2007. "The interrelated dynamics of unemployment and low-wage employment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 511-531.
    6. Kostas Mavromaras & Peter Sloane & Zhang Wei, 2015. "The scarring effects of unemployment, low pay and skills under-utilization in Australia compared," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(23), pages 2413-2429, May.
    7. Martin Biewen, 2009. "Measuring state dependence in individual poverty histories when there is feedback to employment status and household composition," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1095-1116.
    8. Niedergesäss, Markus, 2012. "Duration dependence, lagged duration dependence, and occurrence dependence in individual employment histories," University of Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics and Finance 26, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences.
    9. Maëlle Della Peruta & Dominique Torre, 2013. "Virtual social currencies for unemployed people: social networks and job market access," Working Papers halshs-00856480, HAL.
    10. Arulampalam, Wiji, 2002. "State Dependence in Unemployment Incidence: Evidence for British Men Revisited," IZA Discussion Papers 630, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    11. Amynah Gangji & Robert Plasman, 2008. "Microeconomic analysis of unemployment persistence in Belgium," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 280-298, June.
    12. Steiner, Viktor, 1993. "Long-term unemployment during the transition to a market economy: Eastern Germany after unification," ZEW Discussion Papers 93-14, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    13. JOSE Ma ARRANZ & Juan Muro, 2004. "Recurrent unemployment, welfare benefits and heterogeneity," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 423-441.
    14. P. B. Seetharaman, 2004. "Modeling Multiple Sources of State Dependence in Random Utility Models: A Distributed Lag Approach," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 263-271, April.
    15. Wolfgang Franz & Joachim Inkmann & Winfried Pohlmeier & Volker Zimmermann, 2000. "Young and Out in Germany (On Youths? Chances of Labor Market Entrance in Germany)," NBER Chapters,in: Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries, pages 381-426 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Mavromaras, Kostas G. & Polidano, Cain, 2011. "Improving the Employment Rates of People with Disabilities through Vocational Education," IZA Discussion Papers 5548, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    17. Rune Lesner, 2015. "Does labor market history matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1327-1364, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:9307. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/zemande.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.