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The dynamic effects of an earnings subsidy for long-term welfare recipients: Evidence from the self sufficiency project applicant experiment


  • Card, David
  • Hyslop, Dean R.


In the Self Sufficiency Project Applicant Experiment, new welfare entrants were informed that if they remained on public assistance for a year they would become eligible to receive a generous earnings subsidy offer. Those who satisfied the waiting period, and then left welfare and began working full time within the following year, were entitled to receive payments for up to 36 months whenever they were off welfare and working full time. A simple optimizing model suggests that the program rules created an unusual sequence of incentives: (1) to prolong the initial spell on welfare for at least 12 months to become eligible for the subsidy offer; (2) to lock in subsidy entitlement by finding full time work and leaving welfare in the 12-24 month period after initial entry; and (3) to choose work over welfare during the three years that subsidies were available. Consistent with these implications, comparisons between the experimental treatment group and a randomly assigned control group show that the program increased welfare participation in the first year after initial entry and lowered it over the following 5 years. We develop an econometric model of welfare participation and program eligibility status that allows us to separately identify the behavioral effects associated with the program rules. We find important responses to all three incentives, and that the program impact persisted after subsidy payments ended, although the effect decayed over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Card, David & Hyslop, Dean R., 2009. "The dynamic effects of an earnings subsidy for long-term welfare recipients: Evidence from the self sufficiency project applicant experiment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(1), pages 1-20, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:153:y:2009:i:1:p:1-20

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jeremy Lise & Shannon Seitz & Jeffrey Smith, 2015. "Evaluating search and matching models using experimental data," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-35, December.
    2. Card, David & Sullivan, Daniel G, 1988. "Measuring the Effect of Subsidized Training Programs on Movements in and out of Employment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 497-530, May.
    3. David Card & Dean R. Hyslop, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of a Time-Limited Earnings Subsidy for Welfare-Leavers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1723-1770, November.
    4. Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January.
    5. Robert A. Moffitt, 1996. "The effect of employment and training programs on entry and exit from the welfare caseload," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 32-50.
    6. Card, David & Robins, Philip K., 2005. "How important are "entry effects" in financial incentive programs for welfare recipients? Experimental evidence from the Self-Sufficiency Project," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1-2), pages 113-139.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adnan Q. Khan & Steven F. Lehrer, 2013. "The Impact of Social Networks on Labour Market Outcomes: New Evidence from Cape Breton," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 39(s1), pages 1-24, May.
    2. Brouillette, Dany & Lacroix, Guy, 2010. "Heterogeneous treatment and self-selection in a wage subsidy experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(7-8), pages 479-492, August.
    3. Dr Richard Dorsett, 2014. "Human well-being and in-work benefits: a randomized controlled trial," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 424, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    4. Tue Gorgens & Dean Hyslop, 2016. "The specification of dynamic discrete-time two-state panel data models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2016-631, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    5. Rainer Eppel & Helmut Mahringer, 2012. "Do wage subsidies work in boosting economic inclusion? Evidence on e," EcoMod2012 4065, EcoMod.
    6. Tim Kautz & James J. Heckman & Ron Diris & Bas ter Weel & Lex Borghans, 2014. "Fostering and Measuring Skills: Improving Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills to Promote Lifetime Success," NBER Working Papers 20749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bruno Van der Linden, 2016. "Do in-work benefits work for low-skilled workers?," IZA World of Labor, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), pages 246-246, March.
    8. Nicholas-James Clavet & Jean-Yves Duclos & Guy Lacroix, 2012. "Fighting Poverty: Assessing the Effect of a Guaranteed Minimum Income Proposal in Québec," CIRANO Working Papers 2012s-36, CIRANO.
    9. Stephan, Gesine & van den Berg, Gerard & Homrighausen, Pia, 2016. "Randomizing information on a targeted wage support program for older workers: A field experiment," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145487, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.


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