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State dependence, duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in the employment transitions of the over-50s


  • Cappellari, Lorenzo
  • Dorsett, Richard
  • Haile, Getinet


This paper examines employment transitions among men and women in the UK aged between 50 and the state pension age. We begin by examining the issue of duration dependence, using standard duration models. We then use a fourth order Markov model to estimate quarterly transitions while allowing for potential endogeneity of initial conditions. The results reject exogeneity of initial conditions and show the importance of both duration dependence and state dependence. This implies there is the potential for any individual to become trapped in non-employment and, ideally, policy should intervene as soon as an individual begins a period of non-employment.

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  • Cappellari, Lorenzo & Dorsett, Richard & Haile, Getinet, 2007. "State dependence, duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in the employment transitions of the over-50s," ISER Working Paper Series 2007-16, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:ese:iserwp:2007-16

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    2. Meghir, Costas & Whitehouse, Edward, 1997. "Labour market transitions and retirement of men in the UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 327-354, August.
    3. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54.
    4. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-138, February.
    5. Richard Blundell & Costas Meghir & Sarah Smith, 2002. "Pension Incentives and the Pattern of Early Retirement," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages 153-170, March.
    6. Haardt, David, 2006. "Transitions out of and back to employment among older men and women in the UK," ISER Working Paper Series 2006-20, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    7. Sueyoshi, Glenn T., 1992. "Semiparametric proportional hazards estimation of competing risks models with time-varying covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 25-58.
    8. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics,in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460 Elsevier.
    9. Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M.
    10. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
    11. Disney, Richard & Emmerson, Carl & Wakefield, Matthew, 2006. "Ill health and retirement in Britain: A panel data-based analysis," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 621-649, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marjan Maes, 2013. "Poverty persistence among the elderly in the transition from work to retirement," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 11(1), pages 35-56, March.
    2. Danilo Cavapozzi, 2008. "Health and Labor Supply Dynamics of Older Married Workers," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0073, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    3. Marjan, MAES, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly in the transition from work to retirement : an empirical analysis," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008042, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    4. Valerija Botric & Iva Tomic, 2016. "Self-employment of the young and the old: exploring effects of the crisis in Croatia," Working Papers 1603, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
    5. Tue Gorgens & Dean Hyslop, 2016. "The specification of dynamic discrete-time two-state panel data models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2016-631, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    6. Maes, Marjan, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly: true or spurious?," ISER Working Paper Series 2008-24, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    7. Grün, Carola & Mahringer, Helmut & Rhein, Thomas, 2011. "Low-wage jobs: a means for employment integration of the unemployed? : evidence from administrative data in Germany and Austria," IAB Discussion Paper 201101, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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