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The dynamics of health and labour market transitions at older ages: evidence from a multi-state model

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  • Harris, M.N.
  • Zhao, X.
  • Zucchelli, E.

Abstract

Despite its clear relevance and policy significance, there is still sparse evidence on the effects of ill-health on the dynamics of labour state transitions among older individuals. We provide novel evidence by considering retirement as mobility among full-time work, part-time work, self-employment and inactivity, using a dynamic multinomial choice model that simultaneously accounts for state dependence, individual-level and state-specific unobserved heterogeneity, captivity and correlations between labour market states. We also simulate the dynamic paths for the four labour states from both transitory and permanent health shocks. We find strong state dependence for all four labour states even after accounting for individual effects. Both ill-health and health shocks are found to greatly increase the probability of leaving full-time employment into inactivity, and we find some evidence of part-time and self-employment paths. Significant evidence is found for “captivity†effects for the “inactive†state, and correlations across labour states. We also show that the degree of state dependence is over-estimated and, for men, the effects of ill health under-estimated, if unobserved individual effects are not controlled for in dynamic models.

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  • Harris, M.N. & Zhao, X. & Zucchelli, E., 2016. "The dynamics of health and labour market transitions at older ages: evidence from a multi-state model," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 16/30, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
  • Handle: RePEc:yor:hectdg:16/30
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    health; dynamic labour transitions; captivity; unobserved heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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