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Testing for Choice Dynamics in Panel Data

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  • Erdem, Tulin
  • Sun, Baohong

Abstract

This article applies different approaches to distinguish state dependence from unobserved heterogeneity and serial correlation and, hence, test for state dependence in consumer brand choices. First, we apply a simple method proposed by Chamberlain, which involves lagged exogenous variables only. Second, we also estimate a lagged-dependent-variable specification proposed by Wooldridge. Third, we use the estimation approach suggested by Wooldridge to estimate a model with both lagged dependent and exogenous variables to distinguish between the two different sources of choice dynamics, state dependence and lagged effects of the exogenous variables. Our analysis reveals that the best approach is to use models with both lagged dependent and exogenous variables. Our findings include strong evidence for state dependence in five out of the six product categories studied in this article.

Suggested Citation

  • Erdem, Tulin & Sun, Baohong, 2001. "Testing for Choice Dynamics in Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 142-152, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:19:y:2001:i:2:p:142-52
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    1. repec:eee:ecosta:v:4:y:2017:i:c:p:121-129 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Oded Netzer & James M. Lattin & V. Srinivasan, 2008. "A Hidden Markov Model of Customer Relationship Dynamics," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 185-204, 03-04.
    3. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54.
    4. Ricardo Montoya & Oded Netzer & Kamel Jedidi, 2010. "Dynamic Allocation of Pharmaceutical Detailing and Sampling for Long-Term Profitability," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 909-924, 09-10.
    5. Liberali, Guilherme & Gruca, Thomas S. & Nique, Walter M., 2011. "The effects of sensitization and habituation in durable goods markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 398-410, July.
    6. Demoussis, Michael & Giannakopoulos, Nicholas, 2006. "The dynamics of home computer ownership in Greece," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 73-86, March.
    7. Jean-Pierre Dubé & Günter J. Hitsch & Peter E. Rossi, 2010. "State dependence and alternative explanations for consumer inertia," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 41(3), pages 417-445.
    8. Regina T. Riphahn & Christoph Wunder, 2016. "State dependence in welfare receipt: transitions before and after a reform," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1303-1329, June.
    9. Segers, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2008. "Measuring weekly consumer confidence," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-01, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    10. Hongju Liu & Pradeep K. Chintagunta & Ting Zhu, 2010. "Complementarities and the Demand for Home Broadband Internet Services," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(4), pages 701-720, 07-08.
    11. P. B. Seetharaman, 2004. "Modeling Multiple Sources of State Dependence in Random Utility Models: A Distributed Lag Approach," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 263-271, April.
    12. K. Sudhir & Nathan Yang, 2014. "Exploiting the Choice-Consumption Mismatch: A New Approach to Disentangle State Dependence and Heterogeneity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1941, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    13. Zucchelli, E. & Harris, M. & Zhao, X., 2012. "Ill-health and transitions to part-time work and self-employment among older workers," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 12/04, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    14. Ramkumar Janakiraman & Shantanu Dutta & Catarina Sismeiro & Philip Stern, 2008. "Physicians' Persistence and Its Implications for Their Response to Promotion of Prescription Drugs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(6), pages 1080-1093, June.
    15. Segers, Rene & Franses, Philip Hans & de Bruijn, Bert, 2017. "A novel approach to measuring consumer confidence," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 121-129.
    16. Paas, L.J. & Vermunt, J.K. & Bijmolt, T.H.A., 2007. "Discrete-time discrete-state latent Markov modelling for assessing and predicting household acquisitions of financial products," Other publications TiSEM 5781ab33-6687-4ad5-b57a-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. José M. Labeaga & Mercedes Martos-Partal, 2007. "A Proposal to Distinguish State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity in Binary Brand Choice Models," Working Papers 2007-02, FEDEA.
    18. Harris, M.N. & Zhao, X. & Zucchelli, E., 2016. "The dynamics of health and labour market transitions at older ages: evidence from a multi-state model," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 16/30, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.

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