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Long-term effects of a mandatory multistage program: the New Deal for young people in the UK

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  • Giacomi De Giorgi

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Stanford University)

Abstract

The New Deal For Young People is the major welfare-to-work program in the UK. It is a mandatory multistage policy targeted at the 18-24 year old unemployed. This paper investigates the effectiveness of the program in terms of enhancing the (re)employment probability of participant males. I exploit the eligibility rule to identify a suitable counterfactual relying upon a simple regression discontinuity design. By exploiting such a discontinuity I am able to non parametrically identify (Hahn et al., 2001) a local average treatment effect (LATE). While relying upon the non parametric local linear regression method I am able to push forward such a parameter to a "global" dimension, implicitly adding parametric structure. No evidence of possible general equilibrium as well as substitution effects is found by a co- hort specific approach (before and after the program). The main result is that the program enhances employability by about 6-7%.

Suggested Citation

  • Giacomi De Giorgi, 2005. "Long-term effects of a mandatory multistage program: the New Deal for young people in the UK," IFS Working Papers W05/08, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:05/08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marios Michaelides & Peter R. Mueser & Jeffrey A. Smith, 2021. "Do Reemployment Programs For The Unemployed Work For Youth? Evidence From The Great Recession In The United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 162-185, January.
    2. Marios Michaelides & Peter Mueser, 2020. "The Labor Market Effects of US Reemployment Policy: Lessons from an Analysis of Four Programs during the Great Recession," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(4), pages 1099-1140.
    3. Craig Brett & Laurence Jacquet, 2015. "Workforce or workfare? The optimal use of work requirements when labour is supplied along the extensive margin," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(5), pages 1855-1882, December.
    4. Gerard J. van den Berg & Annette H. Bergemann & Marco Caliendo, 2009. "The Effect of Active Labor Market Programs on Not-Yet Treated Unemployed Individuals," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 606-616, 04-05.
    5. Annette Bergemann & Marco Caliendo & Gerard J. van den Berg & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2011. "The threat effect of participation in active labor market programs on job search behavior of migrants in Germany," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(7), pages 777-795, October.
    6. Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Biavaschi, Costanza & Eichhorst, Werner & Giulietti, Corrado & Kendzia, Michael J. & Muravyev, Alexander & Pieters, Janneke & Rodríguez-Planas, Núria & Schmidl, Ricarda, 2013. "Youth Unemployment and Vocational Training," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 9(1–2), pages 1-157, December.
    7. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    8. Mike Brewer, 2007. "Welfare reform in the UK: 1997 - 2007," IFS Working Papers W07/20, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Yingying Dong, 2012. "Regression Discontinuity Applications with Rounding Errors in the Running Variable," Working Papers 111206, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    10. Dayanand S. Manoli & Marios Michaelides & Ankur Patel, 2018. "Long-Term and Heterogeneous Effects of Job-Search Assistance," NBER Working Papers 24422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Duncan McVicar & Jan M. Podivinsky, 2010. "Are Active Labour Market Programmes Least Effective Where They Are Most Needed? The Case of the British New Deal for Young People," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2010n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    12. Gerard J. van den Berg & Antoine Bozio & Mónica Costa Dias, 2020. "Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(3), pages 871-916, July.
    13. Bruno Decreuse & Guillaume Wilemme, 2019. "Age Discontinuity and Nonemployment Benefit Policy Evaluation through the Lens of Job Search Theory," Working Papers halshs-02072800, HAL.
    14. Jeff Borland & Yi-Ping Tseng, 2011. "Does 'Work for the Dole' work?: an Australian perspective on work experience programmes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(28), pages 4353-4368.
    15. van den Berg, Gerard J. & Hofmann, Barbara & Stephan, Gesine & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2021. "Mandatory integration agreements for unemployed job seekers: a randomized controlled field experiment in Germany," Working Paper Series 2021:4, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    16. Alexander C. Lembcke, 2014. "The Impact of Mandatory Entitlement to Paid Leave on Employment in the UK," CEP Discussion Papers dp1262, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    17. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    18. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2009. "Regression Discontinuity Designs In Economics," Working Papers 1118, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    19. Bruno Crepon & Marc Ferracci & Grégory Jolivet & Gerard Van Den Berg, 2010. "Analyzing the Anticipation of Treatments with Data on Notification Dates," Working Papers 2010-41, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    20. Tanweer Ali, 2011. "The UK future jobs fund: The Labour party's adoption of the job guarantee principle," Working Papers PKWP1106, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    21. Crépon, Bruno & Ferracci, Marc & Jolivet, Grégory & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2010. "Analyzing the Anticipation of Treatments Using Data on Notification Dates," IZA Discussion Papers 5265, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    22. Álvaro A. Novo & Mário Centeno, 2006. "The Impact on Unemployment Duration of a Mandatory Job Search Program," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour market policy evaluation; regression discontinuity; non parametric;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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