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Anatomy of Welfare Reform Evaluation: Announcement and Implementation Effects

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  • Blundell, Richard

    (University College London)

  • Francesconi, Marco

    (University of Essex)

  • van der Klaauw, Wilbert

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Abstract

This paper formulates a simple model of female labor force decisions which embeds an in-work benefit reform and explicitly allows for announcement and implementation effects. We explore several mechanisms through which women can respond to the announcement of a reform that increases in-work benefits, including sources of intertemporal substitution, human capital accumulation, and labor market frictions. Using the model's insights and information of the precise timing of the announcement and implementation of a major UK in-work benefit reform, we estimate its effects on single mothers' behavior. We find important announcement effects on employment decisions. We show that this finding is consistent with the presence of short-run frictions in the labor market. Evaluations of this reform which ignore such effects produce impact effect estimates that are biased downwards by 15 to 35 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Blundell, Richard & Francesconi, Marco & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2011. "Anatomy of Welfare Reform Evaluation: Announcement and Implementation Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 6050, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6050
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    2. Arni, Patrick & Liu, Xingfei, 2016. "On or Off – Are Treatment Effects of Policy Changes Symmetric? Evidence from Unemployment Insurance Reform with Incomplete Information," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145519, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Yanying Chen & Yi Jin Tan, 2018. "The effect of non-contributory pensions on labour supply and private income transfers: evidence from Singapore," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-54, December.
    4. Ghazala Azmat, 2019. "Incidence, salience, and spillovers: The direct and indirect effects of tax credits on wages," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(1), pages 239-273, January.
    5. Julia Shu-Huah Wang, 2021. "State TANF Time Limit and Work Sanction Stringencies and Long-Term Trajectories of Welfare Use, Labor Supply, and Income," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 650-696, December.
    6. Bastani, Spencer & Moberg, Ylva & Selin, Håkan, 2016. "Estimating participation responses using transfer program reform," Working Paper Series, Center for Labor Studies 2016:4, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    7. Spencer Bastani & Ylva Moberg & Håkan Selin, 2021. "The Anatomy of the Extensive Margin Labor Supply Response," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(1), pages 33-59, January.
    8. Lalive, Rafael, 2021. "Mothers at Work: How Mandating Paid Maternity Leave Affects Employment, Earnings and Fertility," CEPR Discussion Papers 16418, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Andersson, Jonas & Schroyen, Fred & Torsvik, Gaute, 2019. "The impact of international tax information exchange agreements on the use of tax amnesty: evidence from Norway," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 16/2019, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    10. Laun, Lisa, 2017. "The effect of age-targeted tax credits on labor force participation of older workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 102-118.
    11. Arni, Patrick & Liu, Xingfei, 2020. "The Role of Incomplete Information in Shaping Policy Effects: Evidence from Unemployment Insurance," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224629, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Elinder, Mikael & Persson, Lovisa, 2017. "House price responses to a national property tax reform," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 18-39.
    13. Girsberger, Esther Mirjam & Hassani-Nezhad, Lena & Karunanethy, Kalaivani & Lalive, Rafael, 2023. "Mothers at work: How mandating a short maternity leave affects work and fertility," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
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    16. Malani, Anup & Reif, Julian, 2015. "Interpreting pre-trends as anticipation: Impact on estimated treatment effects from tort reform," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-17.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    policy evaluation; in-work benefit; anticipation effects; labor market frictions; intertemporal substitution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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