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Estimating labour supply responses and welfare participation: Using a natural experiment to validate a structural labour supply model

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  • Jorgen Hansen
  • Xingfei Liu

Abstract

We estimate an economic model of labour supply and welfare participation using data on single men from Quebec drawn from the 1986 Canadian Census. Detailed budget sets for each work‐welfare combination—accounting for income taxes, tax credits and welfare benefit rules—are derived using a micro‐simulation model. We show that predicted reactions to a welfare reform that took place in 1989 replicate actual changes in labour supply and welfare participation. We also illustrate the advantage of having estimated a structural model by showing how labour supply and welfare participation change when income taxes and benefit levels change. Estimation des réponses de lx'offre de travail et de la participation à l'aide sociale: utilisation d'une expérience vécue pour valider un modèle structurel d'offre de travail. On calibre un modèle économique d'offre de travail et de participation à l'aide sociale en utilisant des données pour les hommes célibataires du Québec tirées du recensement de 1986. On dérive d'un modèle de micro‐simulation des budgets détaillés pour chaque combinaison de travail et d'aide sociale – tenant compte des impôts sur le revenu, des crédits d'impôt, et des prestations d'aide sociale. On montre que les réactions prévues à la réforme de l'aide sociale qui a eu lieu en 1989 répliquent les changements qui se sont produits dans l'offre de travail et dans la participation à l'aide sociale. On illustre l'avantage d'avoir calibré un modèle structurel en montrant comment l'offre de travail et la participation à l'aide sociale se sont modifiées quand les impôts sur le revenu et les prestations d'aide sociale ont changé.

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  • Jorgen Hansen & Xingfei Liu, 2015. "Estimating labour supply responses and welfare participation: Using a natural experiment to validate a structural labour supply model," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(5), pages 1831-1854, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:48:y:2015:i:5:p:1831-1854
    DOI: 10.1111/caje.12181
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    1. Jorgen Hansen & Xingfei Liu, 2015. "Estimating labour supply responses and welfare participation: Using a natural experiment to validate a structural labour supply model," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(5), pages 1831-1854, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicole Bosch & Miriam Gielen & Egbert Jongen & Mauro Mastrogiacomo (DNB & voorheen CPB), 2013. "A structural analysis of labour supply elasticities in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 235, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Jorgen Hansen & Xingfei Liu, 2015. "Estimating labour supply responses and welfare participation: Using a natural experiment to validate a structural labour supply model," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(5), pages 1831-1854, December.
    3. Olivier Bargain & Karina Doorley, 2016. "The Effect of Social Benefits on Youth Employment: Combining RD and a Behavioral Model," Post-Print hal-03894917, HAL.
    4. Henk-Wim Boer & Egbert L. W. Jongen, 2023. "Analysing tax-benefit reforms in the Netherlands using structural models and natural experiments," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 179-209, January.
    5. Nicole Bosch & Miriam Gielen & Egbert Jongen & Mauro Mastrogiacomo (DNB & voorheen CPB), 2013. "A structural analysis of labour supply elasticities in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 235.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. Peter Ericson & Lennart Flood & Nizamul Islam, 2015. "Taxes, wages and working hours," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 503-535, September.
    7. de Boer, Henk-Wim & Jongen, Egbert L.W. & Kabatek, Jan, 2022. "The effectiveness of fiscal stimuli for working parents," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Chiara Daniela Pronzato, 2015. "Fighting Lone Mothers’ Poverty Through In-Work Benefits: Methodological Issues and Policy Suggestions," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 61(1), pages 95-122.
    9. Tibor Paul Hanappi & Sandra Müllbacher, 2016. "Tax incentives and family labor supply in Austria," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 961-987, December.
    10. Bargain, Olivier & Doorley, Karina, 2013. "Putting Structure on the RD Design: Social Transfers and Youth Inactivity in France," IZA Discussion Papers 7508, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Kabátek, Jan, 2015. "Essays on public policy and household decision making," Other publications TiSEM 8cdb178e-ad98-42e5-a7e1-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Thoresen, Thor O. & Vattø, Trine E., 2019. "An up-to-date joint labor supply and child care choice model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 51-73.
    13. Liu, Xingfei, 2014. "Educational Attainment of Second-Generation Immigrants: A U.S.-Canada Comparison," IZA Discussion Papers 8685, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. D. Vandelannoote & P. Vanleenhove & A. Decoster & J. Ghysels & G. Verbist, 2015. "Maternal employment: the impact of triple rationing in childcare," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 685-707, September.
    15. Anna Kurowska & Michal Myck & Katharina Wrohlich, 2012. "Family and Labor Market Choices: Requirements to Guide Effective Evidence-Based Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1234, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Pronzato, Chiara D., 2012. "Comparing Quasi-Experimental Designs and Structural Models for Policy Evaluation: The Case of a Reform of Lone Parental Welfare," IZA Discussion Papers 6803, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Kabatek, J., 2013. "Iteration Capping For Discrete Choice Models Using the EM Algorithm," Discussion Paper 2013-019, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    18. Johannes Geyer & Peter Haan & Katharina Wrohlich, 2014. "The Effects of Family Policy on Mothers' Labor Supply: Combining Evidence from a Structural Model and a Natural Experiment," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1366, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Thoresen, Thor O. & Vattø, Trine E., 2015. "Validation of the discrete choice labor supply model by methods of the new tax responsiveness literature," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 38-53.
    20. Henk-Wim de Boer & Egbert Jongen & Jan Kabatek, 2014. "The effectiveness of fiscal stimuli for working parents," CPB Discussion Paper 286.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    21. de Boer, Henk-Wim & Jongen, Egbert L. W., 2020. "Analysing Tax-Benefit Reforms in the Netherlands: Using Structural Models and Natural Experiments," IZA Discussion Papers 12892, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    22. Thor O. Thoresen & Trine E. Vattø, 2013. "Validation of structural labor supply model by the elasticity of taxable income," Discussion Papers 738, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    23. Chiara Daniela Pronzato, 2014. "Fighting Lone Mothers’ Poverty through In-Work Benefits. Methodological Issues and Policy Suggestions," CHILD Working Papers Series 23, Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic Economics (CHILD) - CCA.

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    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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