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Comparing Quasi-Experimental Designs and Structural Models for Policy Evaluation: The Case of a Reform of Lone Parental Welfare

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  • Pronzato, Chiara D.

    (University of Turin)

Abstract

This paper compares two different ways of doing policy evaluation: on the one hand, quasi-experimental methods (or "ex-post" evaluations) which exploit the introduction of a reform and identify its effect by comparing treated and untreated individuals; on the other hand, structural models (or "ex-ante" evaluations) which are based on economic theory and predict the effect of potential reforms by using the estimates of behavioural parameters. The comparison is carried out using an empirical case. In 1998, in Norway, a major welfare reform changed the rules of the most generous benefit for lone parents: it increased the amount of the benefit and introduced working requirements. Using a quasi-experimental evaluation approach, it is found a positive effect of the reform on lone mothers' employment. In this paper, I estimate a static structural model of work and welfare participation decisions and compare the results using the two different approaches. Despite the differences in the assumptions I make for the two models, results are fairly comparable.

Suggested Citation

  • Pronzato, Chiara D., 2012. "Comparing Quasi-Experimental Designs and Structural Models for Policy Evaluation: The Case of a Reform of Lone Parental Welfare," IZA Discussion Papers 6803, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6803
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    Cited by:

    1. Johannes Geyer & Peter Haan & Katharina Wrohlich, 2014. "The Effects of Family Policy on Mothers' Labor Supply: Combining Evidence from a Structural Model and a Natural Experiment," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1366, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Olivier Bargain & Karina Doorley, 2016. "The Effect of Social Benefits on Youth Employment: Combining RD and a Behavioral Model," Post-Print hal-03894917, HAL.
    3. Peter Ericson & Lennart Flood & Nizamul Islam, 2015. "Taxes, wages and working hours," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 503-535, September.
    4. Chiara Daniela Pronzato, 2015. "Fighting Lone Mothers’ Poverty Through In-Work Benefits: Methodological Issues and Policy Suggestions," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 61(1), pages 95-122.
    5. Thor O. Thoresen & Trine E. Vattø, 2013. "Validation of structural labor supply model by the elasticity of taxable income," Discussion Papers 738, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    6. Chiara Daniela Pronzato, 2014. "Fighting Lone Mothers’ Poverty through In-Work Benefits. Methodological Issues and Policy Suggestions," CHILD Working Papers Series 23, Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic Economics (CHILD) - CCA.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    lone mothers; in-work benefits; quasi-experimental evaluation designs; discrete choice modelling; ex-ante and ex-post evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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