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Are Lone Mothers Responsive to Policy Changes? Evidence from a Workfare Reform in a Generous Welfare State

Author

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  • Magne Mogstad
  • Chiara Pronzato

Abstract

There is a heated debate in many European countries about a move towards a welfare system that increases the incentives for lone mothers to move off welfare and into work. We analyze the consequences of a major Norwegian workfare reform of the generous welfare system for lone mothers. Our difference-in-differences estimates show that the policy changes were successful in improving labor market attachment and increasing disposable income of new lone mothers. By contrast, the reform led to a substantial decrease in disposable income and a significant increase in poverty among persistent lone mothers, because a sizeable group was unable to offset the loss of out-of-work welfare benefits with gains in earnings. This suggests that the desired effects of the workfare reform were associated with the side-effects of income loss and increased poverty among a substantial number of lone mothers with insurmountable employment barriers. This finding stands in stark contrast to evidence from similar policy changes in Canada, the UK, and the US, and underscores that policymakers from other developed countries should be cautious when drawing lessons from the successful welfare reforms implemented in Anglo-Saxon countries.
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Suggested Citation

  • Magne Mogstad & Chiara Pronzato, 2012. "Are Lone Mothers Responsive to Policy Changes? Evidence from a Workfare Reform in a Generous Welfare State," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(4), pages 1129-1159, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:114:y:2012:i:4:p:1129-1159
    DOI: j.1467-9442.2012.01722.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Marianne Simonsen & Lars Skipper & Jeffrey Andrew Smith, 2025. "Welfare Reform: Consequences for the Children," CESifo Working Paper Series 12369, CESifo.
    2. Kory Kroft & Kavan Kucko & Etienne Lehmann & Johannes Schmieder, 2020. "Optimal Income Taxation with Unemployment and Wage Responses: A Sufficient Statistics Approach," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 254-292, February.
    3. Collewet, Marion & Fairley, Kim & Kessels, Roselinde & Knoef, Marike & van Vliet, Olaf, 2024. "The design of welfare: unraveling taxpayers' preferences," OSF Preprints 4am7e, Center for Open Science.
    4. Anna Aizer & Paul Devereux & Kjell Salvanes, 2022. "Grandparents, Moms, or Dads? Why Children of Teen Mothers Do Worse in Life," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(6), pages 2012-2047.
    5. Hartley, Robert Paul & Lamarche, Carlos, 2018. "Behavioral responses and welfare reform: Evidence from a randomized experiment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 135-151.
    6. Drange, Nina & Rege, Mari, 2013. "Trapped at home: The effect of mothers' temporary labor market exits on their subsequent work career," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 125-136.
    7. Li, Liming & Avendano, Mauricio, 2023. "Lone parents' employment policy and adolescents’ socioemotional development: Quasi-experimental evidence from a UK reform," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    8. Paul Redmond & Seamus McGuinness & Claire Keane, 2023. "The impact of one-parent family payment reforms on the labour market outcomes of lone parents," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 346-370.
    9. Lars Højsgaard Andersen & Christian Dustmann & Rasmus Landersø, 2019. "Lowering Welfare Benefits: Intended and Unintended Consequences for Migrants and their Families," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 1905, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    10. Løken, Katrine V. & Lommerud, Kjell Erik & Holm Reiso, Katrine, 2018. "Single mothers and their children: Evaluating a work-encouraging welfare reform," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 1-20.
    11. Avram, Silvia & Brewer, Mike & Salvatori, Andrea, 2018. "Can't work or won't work: Quasi-experimental evidence on work search requirements for single parents," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-85.
    12. Vedeler Johnsen, Julian & Holm Reiso, Katrine, 2017. "Economic Impacts of Workfare Reforms for Single Mothers: Benefit Substitution and Labour supply responses," Working Papers in Economics 4/17, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    13. Julian Vedeler Johnsen & Katrine Holm Reiso, 2020. "Economic Effects of Workfare Reforms for Single Mothers: Benefit Substitution and Labour Supply Responses," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(2), pages 494-523, April.
    14. Chiara Daniela Pronzato, 2015. "Fighting Lone Mothers’ Poverty Through In-Work Benefits: Methodological Issues and Policy Suggestions," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 61(1), pages 95-122.
    15. repec:osf:osfxxx:4am7e_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Johannes Kunz & Anna Zhu, 2023. "Welfare Reform and Migrant’s Long-term Labor Market Integration," Papers 2023-05, Centre for Health Economics, Monash University.
    17. Musab Kurnaz & Terry A. Yip, 2022. "The Canadian income taxation: Statistical analysis and parametric estimates," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 272-311, February.
    18. Kalíšková, Klára, 2014. "Labor supply consequences of family taxation: Evidence from the Czech Republic," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 234-244.
    19. Matteo Migheli, 2016. "Behind the Wall: What Remains of the “Communist Legacy” in Contemporary Europe," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 671-690, June.
    20. Wildeman, Christopher & Fallesen, Peter, 2017. "The effect of lowering welfare payment ceilings on children's risk of out-of-home placement," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 82-90.
    21. Chiara Daniela Pronzato, 2014. "Fighting Lone Mothers’ Poverty through In-Work Benefits. Methodological Issues and Policy Suggestions," CHILD Working Papers Series 23, Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic Economics (CHILD) - CCA.
    22. Reiso, Katrine Holm, 2014. "The Effect of Welfare Reforms on Benefit Substitution," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 22/2014, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    23. Pronzato, Chiara D., 2012. "Comparing Quasi-Experimental Designs and Structural Models for Policy Evaluation: The Case of a Reform of Lone Parental Welfare," IZA Discussion Papers 6803, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    24. Marc K. Chan & Kai Liu, 2018. "Life‐cycle and intergenerational effects of child care reforms," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 659-706, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General

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