Component-Based Dynamic Factor Nowcast Model

In this paper, we propose a component-based dynamic factor model for nowcasting GDP growth. We combine ideas from “bottom-up” approaches, which utilize the national income accounting identity through modelling and predicting sub-components of GDP, with a dynamic factor (DF) model, which is suitable for dimension reduction as well as parsimonious real-time monitoring of the economy. The advantages of the new model are twofold: (i) in contrast to existing dynamic factor models, it respects the GDP accounting identity; (ii) in contrast to existing “bottom-up” approaches, it models all GDP components jointly through the dynamic factor model, inheriting its main advantages. An additional advantage of the resulting CBDF approach is that it generates nowcast densities and impact decompositions for each component of GDP as a by-product. We present a comprehensive forecasting exercise, where we evaluate the model’s performance in terms of point and density forecasts, and we compare it to existing models (e.g. the model of Almuzara, Baker, O’Keeffe, and Sbordone (2023)) currently used by the New York Fed, as well as the model of Higgins (2014) currently used by the Atlanta Fed. We demonstrate that, on average, the point nowcast performance (in terms of RMSE) of the standard DF model can be improved by 15 percent and its density nowcast performance (in terms of log-predictive scores) can be improved by 20 percent over a large historical sample.