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Are GDP Revisions Predictable? Evidence for Switzerland

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  • Boriss Siliverstovs

Abstract

This study presents a model that delivers more accurate forecasts of the revised rather initial estimates of the quarterly GDP growth rate in Switzerland during the period of the recent financial crisis. The key explanation to our findings is that our model, capitalizing on the information contained in the Business Tendency Surveys, is able to predict future revisions of the initial estimates. Our findings imply that there is a scope for improvement of how preliminary estimates of the quarterly GDP growth rate are produced in Switzerland .

Suggested Citation

  • Boriss Siliverstovs, 2012. "Are GDP Revisions Predictable? Evidence for Switzerland," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 58(4), pages 299-326.
    • Handle: RePEc:aeq:aeqaeq:v58_y2012_i4_q4_p299-326
    DOI: 10.3790/aeq.58.4.299
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    1. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
    2. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2010. "Introducing the euro-sting: Short-term indicator of euro area growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 663-694.
    3. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
    4. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-565, October.
    5. Nicolas Cuche-Curti & Pamela Hall & Attilio Zanetti, 2009. "Swiss GDP revisions: A monetary policy perspective," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2008(2), pages 183-213.
    6. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
    7. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2011. "Spain‐Sting: Spain Short‐Term Indicator Of Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s1), pages 594-616, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2016. "The franc shock and Swiss GDP: how long does it take to start feeling the pain?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(36), pages 3432-3441, August.
    2. Ronald Indergand & Stefan Leist, 2014. "A Real-Time Data Set for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(IV), pages 331-352, December.
    3. Katharina Glass, 2018. "Predictability of Euro Area Revisions," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201801, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    4. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2017. "Short-term forecasting with mixed-frequency data: a MIDASSO approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(13), pages 1326-1343, March.
    5. Caroline Flodberg & Pär Österholm, 2017. "A Statistical Anaysis of Revisions in Swedish National Accounts Data," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 10-33, Autumn.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP revisions; forecasting; mixed-frequency data; factor model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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