IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdm/wpaper/2012-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monthly GDP estimates based on the IGAE

Author

Listed:
  • Rocío Elizondo

Abstract

This article presents three methods to estimate the logarithm of montly real GDP in Mexico from the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE): (1) a deterministic approach using the IGAE growth rate; (2) an extension of Denton method; and, (3) the Kalman filter. In these methods the monthly GDP is regarded as an unobservable variable that is approximated using only the IGAE. Results suggest that the method based on the Kalman filter seems to fit better the observed data of quarterly GDP under several error measures. By analyzing different estimation periods it was found that the parameters corresponding to the filter remained relatively stable over the period of study. Therefore, this method was used to perform out-of-sample forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Rocío Elizondo, 2012. "Monthly GDP estimates based on the IGAE," Working Papers 2012-11, Banco de México.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2012-11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/publicaciones/documentos-de-investigacion/banxico/%7B3EC7A808-3967-0607-B4FF-12AB62464094%7D.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
    2. Nicolas A. Cuche & Martin K. Hess, 1999. "Estimating Monthly GDP In A General Kalman Filter Framework: Evidence From Switzerland," Working Papers 99.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    3. V. Guerrero & J. Martínez, 1995. "A recursive ARIMA-based procedure for disaggregating a time series variable using concurrent data," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 4(2), pages 359-376, December.
    4. Karanfil, Fatih & Ozkaya, Ata, 2007. "Estimation of real GDP and unrecorded economy in Turkey based on environmental data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4902-4908, October.
    5. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2006. "Kalman Filter and its Economic Applications," MPRA Paper 22734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gross Domestic Product; Global Indicator of Economic Activity; Kalman Filter; Denton Method; Forecasts.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2012-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dirección de Sistemas). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bangvmx.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.