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Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Global Economic Leaders' Influence on Regional Economic Growth

Author

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  • Guillermo Benavides Perales

    (Banco de México)

  • Carmen Borrego Salcido

    (Instituto Politécnico Nacional, México)

Abstract

Este estudio tiene como objetivo evaluar el crecimiento económico regional de países seleccionados de América, Europa y Asia en medio de la incertidumbre económica global. La metodología propuesta incorpora frecuencias mixtas en los datos (VAR-MIDAS) facilitando la evaluación de su dependencia de valores rezagados y la medición del impacto y la influencia de de la incertidumbre de la Política Económica Global (GEPU) en el crecimiento económico en otros países dentro de la misma región. Lo anterior da luz sobre los efectos de las noticias económicas de los periódicos relevantes sobre el crecimiento del PIB. La hipótesis principal sugiere una influencia significativa de otros países dentro de la misma región y de las dos principales potencias económicas mundiales en el crecimiento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) de cada región estudiada, a saber, Estados Unidos y China. Esta investigación también examina esta hipótesis en 19 economías incluidas en GEPU, categorizándolas regionalmente por continente. Los resultados econométricos confirman la influencia de las dos economías líderes en el crecimiento económico e identifican relaciones causales, y el GEPU también muestra efectos sobre el PIB. Además, las estimaciones dentro de la muestra revelan disparidades en la influencia de los líderes en el crecimiento económico de las economías examinadas.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillermo Benavides Perales & Carmen Borrego Salcido, 2024. "Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Global Economic Leaders' Influence on Regional Economic Growth," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 19(4), pages 1-22, Octubre -.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:19:y:2024:i:4:a:2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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