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A global economic policy uncertainty index from principal component analysis

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  • Peng-Fei Dai

    (TJU)

  • Xiong Xiong

    (TJU)

  • Wei-Xing Zhou

    (ECUST)

Abstract

This paper constructs a global economic policy uncertainty index through the principal component analysis of the economic policy uncertainty indices for twenty primary economies around the world. We find that the PCA-based global economic policy uncertainty index is a good proxy for the economic policy uncertainty on a global scale, which is quite consistent with the GDP-weighted global economic policy uncertainty index. The PCA-based economic policy uncertainty index is found to be positively related with the volatility and correlation of the global financial market, which indicates that the stocks are more volatile and correlated when the global economic policy uncertainty is higher. The PCA-based global economic policy uncertainty index performs slightly better because the relationship between the PCA-based uncertainty and market volatility and correlation is more significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng-Fei Dai & Xiong Xiong & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2019. "A global economic policy uncertainty index from principal component analysis," Papers 1907.05049, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2019.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1907.05049
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dai, Peng-Fei & Xiong, Xiong & Zhang, Jin & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "The role of global economic policy uncertainty in predicting crude oil futures volatility: Evidence from a two-factor GARCH-MIDAS model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Peng-Fei Dai & Xiong Xiong & Zhifeng Liu & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Jianjun Sun, 2021. "Preventing crash in stock market: The role of economic policy uncertainty during COVID-19," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, December.
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    5. Dai, Yun-Shi & Huynh, Ngoc Quang Anh & Zheng, Qing-Huan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Correlation structure analysis of the global agricultural futures market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    6. Yang, Ya & Zhou, Mengru & Hou, Yawei & Tang, Run & Liu, Bo & Deng, Yue, 2023. "Examining the impacts of implicit economic policy on urban environmental pollution: Unveiling pathways for sustainable recovery," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    7. Chunyan He & Ding Li & Qiong Ma & Daichun Yi, 2022. "City Bias: Affordable Housing Accessibility Assessment—Evidence From 153 Prefectural Cities in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(4), pages 21582440221, December.
    8. Wangfang Xu & Wenjia Rao & Longbao Wei & Qianqian Wang, 2023. "A Normalized Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index from Unsupervised Machine Learning," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-10, July.
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    10. Ángela Engelmo Moriche & Ana Nieto Masot & Julián Mora Aliseda, 2021. "Territorial Analysis of the Survival of European Aid to Rural Tourism (Leader Method in SW Spain)," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-24, September.
    11. Zhang, Yin-Ting & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2023. "Quantifying the status of economies in international crop trade networks: A correlation structure analysis of various node-ranking metrics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    12. Terver Theophilus Kumeka & Olabusuyi Rufus Falayi & Adeniyi Jimmy Adedokun & Francis Olayinka Adeyemi, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and exchange market pressure in Nigeria: a quantile regression analysis," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 15(2), pages 135-166.

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    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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