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Investor Sentiment and the Economic Policy Uncertainty Premium

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Abstract

Motivated by recent studies documenting an equity premium associated with economic policy uncertainty (EPU), we test the hypothesis that the EPU premium is stronger (weaker) following periods of low (high) investor sentiment. We estimate stock sensitivity to an economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index and show that stocks in the Australian equities market in the highest uncertainty beta tertile underperform stocks in the lowest tertile, similar to US stocks. However, we find that this negative uncertainty premium remains significant only following periods of low investor sentiment as it disappears following periods of high sentiment. Our results complement the US evidence in that uncertainty averse investors are willing to pay high prices for stocks with positive uncertainty beta and require extra compensation to hold stocks with negative beta, but only in low sentiment periods. These results are consistent with strong (weak) intertemporal hedging demand for positive EPU beta stocks in low (high) sentiment periods. It is also consistent with limited (full) participation of pessimistic investors and investors with high aversion to uncertainty in low (high) sentiment periods. Our results suggest that betting against EPU as a trading strategy would be relatively more profitable when executed during low sentiment periods.

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  • Gilbert V. Nartea & Hengyu Bai & Ji Wu, 2019. "Investor Sentiment and the Economic Policy Uncertainty Premium," Working Papers in Economics 19/14, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:19/14
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    1. Song, Lu & Tian, Gengyu & Jiang, Yonghong, 2022. "Connectedness of commodity, exchange rate and categorical economic policy uncertainties — Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Wang, Zhuo & Wei, Yu & Shang, Yue & Wang, Qian & Zhao, Cheng, 2025. "Do economic policy uncertainties matter for economic growth? Evidence from MIDAS approaches," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Assaf, Ata & Charif, Husni & Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness between uncertainty and energy markets: Do investor sentiments matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Deimante Teresiene & Greta Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene & Yiyi Liao & Rasa Kanapickiene & Ruihui Pu & Siyan Hu & Xiao-Guang Yue, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumer and Business Confidence Indicators," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    5. Qin, Meng & Mirza, Nawazish & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Exploring Bubbles in the Digital Economy: The Case of China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. Chen, Xinxin & Guo, Yanhong & Song, Yingying, 2024. "Multiple time scales investor sentiment impact the stock market index fluctuation: From margin trading business perspective," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    7. Lu Yang, 2025. "From Economic Policy Uncertainty to Implied Market Volatility: Nothing to Fear?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(2), pages 143-157, February.
    8. Aziz Ullah & He Biao & Assad Ullah, 2024. "Unveiling the Nexus Between Crises, Investor Sentiment, and Volatility of Tourism-Related Stocks: Empirical Findings From Pakistan," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(3), pages 21582440241, August.
    9. Yuan, Tiezhen & Wu, Ji (George) & Qin, Ni & Xu, Jian, 2022. "Being nice to stakeholders: The effect of economic policy uncertainty on corporate social responsibility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    10. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Stef, Nicolae & Wissal, Ben Arfi & Sami, Ben Jabeur, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects and connectedness among climate change, technological innovation, and uncertainty: Evidence from a quantile VAR network and wavelet coherence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    11. Yunpeng Su & Jia Li & Baochen Yang & Yunbi An, 2024. "The Impacts of Policy Uncertainty on Asset Prices: Evidence from China’s Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(4), pages 1087-1133, December.
    12. Kuamvi Sodji, 2023. "Estimating the link between trade uncertainty, pandemic uncertainty and food price stability in Togo: New evidence for an asymmetric analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 1113-1134, May.
    13. Damilola Tope Oyetade & Hilary Tinotenda Muguto & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2024. "Global investor sentiment and bank performance: Evidence from African banks," Finance, Accounting and Business Analysis, University of National and World Economy, Institute for Economics and Politics, vol. 6(2), pages 145-158, December.
    14. Sun, Ting-Ting & Su, Chi-Wei & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "How does trade policy uncertainty affect agriculture commodity prices?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    15. Qiao, Xingzhi & Zhu, Huiming & Zhang, Zhongqingyang & Mao, Weifang, 2022. "Time-frequency transmission mechanism of EPU, investor sentiment and financial assets: A multiscale TVP-VAR connectedness analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    16. Kaihua Wang, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and green finance: evidence from frequency and quantile aspects," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 1-26, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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