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El ISAE: Un Indicador para Monitorear la Actividad Económica Colombiana en Alta Frecuencia

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Pablo Cote-Barón
  • Karen L. Pulido-Mahecha
  • Nicol Valeria Rodríguez-Rodríguez
  • Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez

Abstract

El desarrollo de metodologías que permitan el diagnóstico del estado y la tendencia de la actividad económica es de especial importancia para la toma de decisiones de política económica. En este documento se propone un indicador semanal de actividad económica para Colombia, para el período comprendido entre febrero de 2000 y mayo de 2022. El indicador es obtenido como resultado de un modelo de factores dinámicos con un esquema de frecuencias mixtas, que emplea 32 variables semanales (10), mensuales (19) y trimestrales (3). Los resultados muestran que el indicador captura de forma adecuada los ciclos sobresalientes en el período de análisis, dentro de los cuales se destaca la reciente crisis originada por la pandemia del Covid-19. Además, sugieren que, como se espera, la capacidad del indicador para estimar el desempeño de la actividad económica en el trimestre mejora a medida que se cuenta con más información disponible, considerando los rezagos de publicación de la misma. **** ABSTRACT: The development of methodologies that enable the diagnosis of the current state and trend of economic activity is particularly important to improve the decision-making process in economic policy. This paper proposes a new weekly indicator of economic activity for Colombia, covering the period between February 2000 and May 2022. This indicator is the result of a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model that uses 32 weekly (10), monthly (19) and quarterly (3) variables. Our results suggest that the indicator adequately captures the main economic cycles in the period of analysis, prominent among which is the recent crisis generated by the Covid-19 pandemic. We also find that, given the lags in publication of data, the ability of the indicator to diagnose the state of economic activity improves as more information is available.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Pablo Cote-Barón & Karen L. Pulido-Mahecha & Nicol Valeria Rodríguez-Rodríguez & Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez, 2023. "El ISAE: Un Indicador para Monitorear la Actividad Económica Colombiana en Alta Frecuencia," Borradores de Economia 1225, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1225
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1225
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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