IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bde/wpaper/2511.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Density forecast transformations

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Mogliani

    (BANQUE DE FRANCE)

  • Florens Odendahl

    (BANCO DE ESPAÑA AND CEMFI)

Abstract

The common choice of using a direct forecasting scheme implies that the individual predictions ignore information on their cross-horizon dependence. However, this dependence is needed if the forecaster has to construct, based on direct density forecasts, predictive objects that are functions of several horizons (e.g. when constructing annual-average growth rates from quarter-on-quarter growth rates). To address this issue we propose using copulas to combine the individual h-step-ahead predictive distributions into one joint predictive distribution. Our method is particularly appealing to those for whom changing the direct forecasting specification is too costly. We use a Monte Carlo study to demonstrate that our approach leads to a better approximation of the true density than an approach that ignores the potential dependence. We show the superior performance of our method using several empirical examples, where we construct (i) quarterly forecasts using month-on-month direct forecasts, (ii) annual-average forecasts using monthly year-on-year direct forecasts, and (iii) annual-average forecasts using quarter-on-quarter direct forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Mogliani & Florens Odendahl, 2025. "Density forecast transformations," Working Papers 2511, Banco de España.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2511
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/38959
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbe/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/25/Files/dt2511e.pdf
    File Function: First version, February 2025
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.53479/38959?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2024. "From Fixed‐Event to Fixed‐Horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multihorizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(7), pages 1675-1704, October.
    2. Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2016. "FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 574-589, October.
    3. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 499-526.
    4. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2019. "Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 638-657.
    5. James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2024. "Constructing density forecasts from quantile regressions: Multimodality in macrofinancial dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 790-812, August.
    6. Giacomini, Raffaella & Komunjer, Ivana, 2005. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 416-431, October.
    7. Tilmann Gneiting & Roopesh Ranjan, 2011. "Comparing Density Forecasts Using Threshold- and Quantile-Weighted Scoring Rules," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 411-422, July.
    8. Ferrara, Laurent & Mogliani, Matteo & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2022. "High-frequency monitoring of growth at risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 582-595.
    9. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph T. McGillicuddy, 2019. "An empirical investigation of direct and iterated multistep conditional forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 181-204, March.
    10. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Quantile regression forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 11-20.
    11. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
    12. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
    13. Michael S. Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2016. "Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 416-434, July.
    14. Christian M. Hafner & Hans Manner, 2012. "Dynamic stochastic copula models: estimation, inference and applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 269-295, March.
    15. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    16. Adelchi Azzalini & Antonella Capitanio, 2003. "Distributions generated by perturbation of symmetry with emphasis on a multivariate skew t‐distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(2), pages 367-389, May.
    17. Tilmann Gneiting & Fadoua Balabdaoui & Adrian E. Raftery, 2007. "Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(2), pages 243-268, April.
    18. Gneiting, Tilmann & Ranjan, Roopesh, 2011. "Comparing Density Forecasts Using Threshold- and Quantile-Weighted Scoring Rules," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(3), pages 411-422.
    19. Grothe, Oliver & Kächele, Fabian & Krüger, Fabian, 2023. "From point forecasts to multivariate probabilistic forecasts: The Schaake shuffle for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    20. Yanqin Fan & Andrew J. Patton, 2014. "Copulas in Econometrics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 179-200, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2024. "Constructing density forecasts from quantile regressions: Multimodality in macrofinancial dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 790-812, August.
    2. Ignacio Garr'on & C. Vladimir Rodr'iguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "International vulnerability of inflation," Papers 2410.20628, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    3. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2024. "Capturing Macro‐Economic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(5), pages 1099-1127, August.
    4. Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2023. "Tail Forecasting With Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 979-1022, August.
    6. Garratt, Anthony & Henckel, Timo & Vahey, Shaun P., 2023. "Empirically-transformed linear opinion pools," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 736-753.
    7. Smith, Michael Stanley & Maneesoonthorn, Worapree, 2018. "Inversion copulas from nonlinear state space models with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 389-407.
    8. Ferrara, Laurent & Mogliani, Matteo & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2022. "High-frequency monitoring of growth at risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 582-595.
    9. Anne Opschoor & André Lucas & István Barra & Dick van Dijk, 2021. "Closed-Form Multi-Factor Copula Models With Observation-Driven Dynamic Factor Loadings," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 1066-1079, October.
    10. Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2024. "From Fixed‐Event to Fixed‐Horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multihorizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(7), pages 1675-1704, October.
    11. Jie Cheng, 2024. "Evaluating Density Forecasts Using Weighted Multivariate Scores in a Risk Management Context," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(6), pages 3617-3643, December.
    12. Souhaib Ben Taieb & James W. Taylor & Rob J. Hyndman, 2017. "Coherent Probabilistic Forecasts for Hierarchical Time Series," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/17, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    13. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 899-960, Elsevier.
    14. Ignacio Garr'on & Andrey Ramos, 2025. "High-frequency Density Nowcasts of U.S. State-Level Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Papers 2501.03380, arXiv.org.
    15. Diks, Cees & Fang, Hao, 2020. "Comparing density forecasts in a risk management context," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 531-551.
    16. David Kohns & Tibor Szendrei, 2021. "Decoupling Shrinkage and Selection for the Bayesian Quantile Regression," Papers 2107.08498, arXiv.org.
    17. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    18. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2025. "Specification Choices in Quantile Regression for Empirical Macroeconomics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 57-73, January.
    19. Chuliá, Helena & Garrón, Ignacio & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Daily growth at risk: Financial or real drivers? The answer is not always the same," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 762-776.
    20. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    joint predictive distribution; frequency transformation; path forecasts; cross-horizon dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2511. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ángel Rodríguez. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdegves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.