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Testing the Asymmetric Effects of Financial Conditions in South Africa: A Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Approach

  • Mehmet Balcilar

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, North Cyprus, via Mersin 10, Turkey)

  • Kirsten Thompson

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Rangan Gupta

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Renee van Eyden

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

The negative consequences of financial instability for the world economy during the recent financial crisis have highlighted the need for a better understanding of financial conditions. We use a financial conditions index (FCI) for South Africa previously constructed from 16 financial variables to test whether the South African economy responds in a nonlinear and asymmetric way to unexpected changes in financial conditions. To this end, we make use of a nonlinear logistic smooth transition vector autoregressive model (LSTVAR), which allows for a smooth evolution of the economy, governed by a chosen switching variable between periods of high and low financial volatility. We find that the South African economy responds nonlinearly to financial shocks, and that manufacturing output growth and Treasury Bill rates are more affected by financial shocks during upswings. Inflation responds significantly more to financial changes during recessions.

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Paper provided by University of Pretoria, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 201414.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201414
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Web page: http://www.up.ac.za/economics

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  1. Kirsten Thompson & Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Testing the Out-of-Sample Forecasting Ability of a Financial Conditions Index for South Africa," Working Papers 201383, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  2. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
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  13. Weise, Charles L, 1999. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: A Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 85-108, February.
  14. Rahman, Sajjadur & Serletis, Apostolos, 2010. "The asymmetric effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks: A nonlinear VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1460-1466, November.
  15. Hubrich, Kirstin & D’Agostino, Antonello & Cervená, Marianna & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Jeanfils, Philippe & Mendicino, Caterina & Ortega, Eva & Valderrama, Maria Teresa &, 2013. "Financial shocks and the macroeconomy: heterogeneity and non-linearities," Occasional Paper Series 143, European Central Bank.
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