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Estimated Thresholds In The Response Of Output To Monetary Policy: Are Large Policy Changes Less Effective?

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  • Donayre, Luiggi

Abstract

This paper investigates the potential sources of the mixed evidence found in the empirical literature studying asymmetries in the response of output to monetary policy shocks of different magnitudes. Further, it argues that such mixed evidence is a consequence of the exogenous imposition of the threshold that classifies monetary shocks as small or large. To address this issue, I propose an unobserved-components model of output, augmented by a monetary policy variable, which allows the threshold to be endogenously estimated. The results show strong statistical evidence that the effect of monetary policy on output varies disproportionately with the size of the monetary shock once the threshold is estimated. Meanwhile, the estimates of the model are consistent with a key implication of menu-cost models: smaller monetary shocks trigger a larger response on output.

Suggested Citation

  • Donayre, Luiggi, 2014. "Estimated Thresholds In The Response Of Output To Monetary Policy: Are Large Policy Changes Less Effective?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 41-64, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:18:y:2014:i:01:p:41-64_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2018. "Nonlinearities, smoothing and countercyclical monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 136-154.
    2. Pao-Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2015. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2015-004, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    3. Ahmad Yamin & Donayre Luiggi, 2016. "Outliers and persistence in threshold autoregressive processes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 37-56, February.
    4. repec:bla:econpa:v:36:y:2017:i:2:p:156-170 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Donayre Luiggi, 2015. "Do monetary policy shocks generate TAR or STAR dynamics in output?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 227-247, April.
    6. Vinícius dos Santos Cerqueira & Márcio Bruno Ribeiro & Thiago Sevilhano Martinez, 2011. "Propagação Assimétrica de Choques Monetários na Economia Brasileira: Evidências com Base em um Modelo Vetorial não Linear de Transição Suave," Discussion Papers 1639, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.

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