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Financial Conditions Indexes for Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Céline Gauthier
  • Christopher Graham
  • Ying Liu

Abstract

The authors construct three financial conditions indexes (FCIs) for Canada based on three approaches: an IS-curve-based model, generalized impulse-response functions, and factoranalysis. Each approach is intended to address one or more criticisms of the monetary conditions index (MCI) and existing FCIs. To evaluate their three FCIs, the authors consider five performance criteria: the consistency of each FCI's weight with economic theory, its graphical ability to predict turning points in the business cycle, its dynamic correlation with output, its in-sample fit in explaining output, and its out-of-sample performance in forecasting output. Using monthly data, the authors find, in general, that housing prices, equity prices, and bond yield risk premiums, in addition to short- and long-term interest rates and the exchange rate, are significant in explaining output from 1981 to 2000. They also find that the FCIs outperform the Bank of Canada's MCI in many areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Céline Gauthier & Christopher Graham & Ying Liu, 2004. "Financial Conditions Indexes for Canada," Staff Working Papers 04-22, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-22
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    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp04-22.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    2. Barry Cozier & Greg Tkacz, "undated". "The Term Structure and Real Activity in Canada," Staff Working Papers 94-3, Bank of Canada.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    4. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lange, Ronald H., 2014. "The small open macroeconomy and the yield curve: A state-space representation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-21.
    2. Angelopoulou, Eleni & Balfoussia, Hiona & Gibson, Heather D., 2014. "Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: What does it tell us about the crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 392-403.
    3. Muhamed Zulkhibri Abdul Majid, 2012. "Measuring monetary conditions in a small open economy: the case of Malaysia," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 218-231, July.
    4. Jan Willem van den End, 2006. "Indicator and boundaries of financial stability," DNB Working Papers 097, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Christophe BLOT & Grégory LEVIEUGE, 2008. "Are MCIs Good Indicators of Countries Economic Activity ? Evidence from the G7 Countries," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 244, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    6. Céline Gauthier & Fu Chun Li, 2006. "Linking Real Activity and Financial Markets: The Bonds, Equity, and Money (BEAM) Model," Staff Working Papers 06-42, Bank of Canada.
    7. Hakan Kara & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2015. "Turkiye icin Finansal Kosullar Endeksi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 15(3), pages 41-73.
    8. Greg Tkacz & Carolyn Wilkins, 2006. "Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices," Staff Working Papers 06-25, Bank of Canada.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Finland; 2008 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Finland," IMF Staff Country Reports 09/39, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Kapetanios, G & Price, SG & Young, G, 2017. "A UK financial conditions index using targeted data reduction: forecasting and structural identification," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 20328, University of Essex, Essex Business School.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary and financial indicators; Monetary conditions index;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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