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Currency risk premia and uncovered interest parity in the International CAPM

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  • Balvers, Ronald J.
  • Klein, Alina F.

Abstract

Zero-investment uncovered interest parity (UIP) portfolio positions provide perfect factor-mimicking portfolios for currency risk in the International CAPM context. Their returns are the currency risk premia. Since the UIP positions on average provide low returns, the currency risk premia must be low so that currency risk appears not to be priced in an unconditional model. However, previous research has shown that UIP returns are predictable and may be quite substantial conditionally. We use this observation to generate a specific conditional version of the International CAPM. A GMM approach shows that the conditional model performs well, while the unconditional International CAPM is (marginally) rejected. The paper thus argues that previous rejections of the International CAPM stem from the fact that currency risk premia are by nature low over extended periods of time and do not provide evidence against the International CAPM.

Suggested Citation

  • Balvers, Ronald J. & Klein, Alina F., 2014. "Currency risk premia and uncovered interest parity in the International CAPM," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 214-230.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:214-230
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.12.002
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    3. Ding Du, 2018. "The pricing of common exchange rate factors in the U.S. equity market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 775-798, April.
    4. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou, 2014. "The long-run component of foreign exchange volatility and stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 268-284.
    5. Chen, Qi-an & Li, Huashi, 2023. "How does exchange rate elasticity of aggregate consumption adjust currency risk price in the stock market?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 590-610.
    6. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou & Wu, Hong, 2014. "Emerging market currency exposure: Taiwan," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 47-61.
    7. Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Ogebe, Joseph O., 2019. "The validity of uncovered interest parity: Evidence from african members and non-member of the organisation of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 229-249.
    8. Ding Du & Ou Hu & Xiaobing Zhao, 2016. "Currency Risk Premium And U.S. Macroeconomic Announcement," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 359-388, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International CAPM; Uncovered interest parity; Conditional asset pricing; Currency risk premia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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