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Testing conditional asset pricing models: An emerging market perspective

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  • Iqbal, Javed
  • Brooks, Robert
  • Galagedera, Don U.A.

Abstract

The CAPM as the benchmark asset pricing model generally performs poorly in both developed and emerging markets. We investigate whether allowing the model parameters to vary improves the performance of the CAPM and the Fama-French model. Conditional asset pricing models scaled by conditioning variables such as Trading Volume and Dividend Yield generally result in small pricing errors. However, a graphical analysis reveals that the predictions of conditional models are generally upward biased. We demonstrate that the bias in prediction may be the consequence of ignoring frequent large variation in asset returns caused by volatile institutional, political and macroeconomic conditions. This is characterised by excess kurtosis. An unconditional Fama-French model augmented with a cubic market factor performs the best among some competing models when local risk factors are employed. Moreover, the conditional models with global risk factors scaled by global conditioning variables perform better than the unconditional models with global risk factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Iqbal, Javed & Brooks, Robert & Galagedera, Don U.A., 2010. "Testing conditional asset pricing models: An emerging market perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 897-918, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:5:p:897-918
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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Bessler & Julian Holler & Philipp Kurmann, 2012. "Hedge funds and optimal asset allocation: Bayesian expectations and spanning tests," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 109-141, March.
    2. Wolff, Dominik & Bessler, Wolfgang & Opfer, Heiko, 2012. "Multi-Asset Portfolio Optimization and Out-of-Sample Performance: An Evaluation of Black-Litterman, Mean Variance and Naïve Diversification Approaches," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62020, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Tamara Teplova & Evgeniya Shutova, 2011. "A Higher Moment Downside Framework for Conditional and Unconditional Capm in the Russian Stock Market," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 1(2), pages 157-178, December.
    4. Javid, Attiya Yasmin, 2008. "Time Varying Risk Return Relationship: Evidence from Listed Pakistani Firms," MPRA Paper 37561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. repec:krk:eberjl:v:1:y:2013:i:4:p:37-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Javid, Attiya Yasmin, 2008. "Forecasting performance of capital asset pricing models in case of Pakistani market," MPRA Paper 37562, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Javid, Attiya Yasmin & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2008. "Testing multifactor capital asset pricing model in case of Pakistani market," MPRA Paper 37341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Balvers, Ronald J. & Klein, Alina F., 2014. "Currency risk premia and uncovered interest parity in the International CAPM," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 214-230.
    9. Grandes, Martin & Panigo, Demian T. & Pasquini, Ricardo A., 2010. "On the estimation of the cost of equity in Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 373-389, December.
    10. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "The conditional pricing of currency and inflation risks in Africa's equity markets," MPRA Paper 56100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Javid, Attiya Yasmin, 2009. "Test of Higher Moment Capital Asset Pricing Model in Case of Pakistani Equity Market," MPRA Paper 38059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Das, Sudipta, 2015. "Empirical evidence of conditional asset pricing in the Indian stock market," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 225-239.
    13. Attiya Y. Javid & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2008. "The Conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model: Evidence from Karachi Stock Exchange," PIDE-Working Papers 2008:48, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    14. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "Conditional pricing of currency risk in Africa's equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 133-155.
    15. Iqbal, Javed & Brooks, Robert & Galagedera, Don U.A., 2010. "Testing conditional asset pricing models: An emerging market perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 897-918, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochastic discount factor Conditioning information Kurtosis Emerging markets;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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