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Evaluating conditional asset pricing models for the German stock market

Author

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  • Schrimpf, Andreas
  • Schröder, Michael
  • Stehle, Richard

Abstract

We study the performance of conditional asset pricing models in explaining the German cross-section of stock returns. Our test assets are portfolios sorted by size and book-to-market as in the paper by Fama and French (1993). Our results show that the empirical performance of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) can be improved substantially when allowing for time-varying parameters of the stochastic discount factor. A conditional CAPM with the term spread as a conditioning variable is able to explain the cross-section of German stock returns about as well as the Fama-French model. Structural break tests do not indicate parameter instability of the model - whereas the reverse is found for the Fama-French model. Unconditional model specifications however do a better job than conditional ones at capturing time-series predictability of the test portfolio returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Schrimpf, Andreas & Schröder, Michael & Stehle, Richard, 2006. "Evaluating conditional asset pricing models for the German stock market," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-043, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5433
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/24498/1/dp06043.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, August.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997. " Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-590, June.
    5. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 1999. "Time-varying market price of risk in the CAPM: Approaches, empirical evidence and implications," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,22, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    6. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. " The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
    7. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
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    11. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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    14. Ralitsa Petkova, 2006. "Do the Fama-French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 581-612, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ernstberger, Jürgen & Vogler, Oliver, 2008. "Analyzing the German accounting triad -- "Accounting Premium" for IAS/IFRS and U.S. GAAP vis-à-vis German GAAP?," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 339-386, December.
    2. M. Deetz & T. Poddig & I. Sidorovitch & A. Varmaz, 2009. "An evaluation of conditional multi-factor models in active asset allocation strategies: an empirical study for the German stock market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 23(3), pages 285-313, September.
    3. Stuart Hyde & Mohamed Sherif, 2010. "Tests of the conditional asset pricing model: further evidence from the cross-section of stock returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 198-211.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Pricing; Conditioning Information; Hansen-Jagannathan Distance; Multifactor Models;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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