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Cross-sectional Tests of Conditional Asset Pricing Models: Evidence from the German Stock Market

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  • Andreas Schrimpf
  • Michael Schröder
  • Richard Stehle

Abstract

"We study the performance of conditional asset pricing models and multifactor models in explaining the German cross-section of stock returns. We focus on several variables, which (according to previous research) are associated with market expectations on future market excess returns or business cycle conditions. Our results suggest that the empirical performance of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) can be improved when allowing for time-varying parameters of the stochastic discount factor. A conditional CAPM using the term spread explains the returns on our size and book-to-market sorted portfolios about as well as the Fama-French three-factor model and performs best in terms of the Hansen-Jagannathan distance. Structural break tests do not necessarily indicate parameter instability of conditional model specifications. Another major finding of the paper is that the Fama-French model - despite its generally good cross-sectional performance - is subject to model instability. Unconditional models, however, do a better job than conditional ones at capturing time-series predictability of the test portfolio returns." Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Schrimpf & Michael Schröder & Richard Stehle, 2007. "Cross-sectional Tests of Conditional Asset Pricing Models: Evidence from the German Stock Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(5), pages 880-907.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:13:y:2007:i:5:p:880-907
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    Cited by:

    1. Mollet, Janick Christian & Ziegler, Andreas, 2014. "Socially responsible investing and stock performance: New empirical evidence for the US and European stock markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 208-216.
    2. Janick Christian Mollet & Andreas Ziegler, 2012. "Is Socially Responsible Investing Really Beneficial? New Empirical Evidence for the US and European Stock Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201228, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Sabine Artmann & Philipp Finter & Alexander Kempf & Stefan Koch & Erik Theissen, 2012. "The Cross-Section of German Stock Returns: New Data and New Evidence," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 64(1), pages 20-43, January.
    4. Ziegler, Andreas & Busch, Timo & Hoffmann, Volker H., 2011. "Disclosed corporate responses to climate change and stock performance: An international empirical analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1283-1294.
    5. Nader Virk & Hilal Butt, 2016. "Specification errors of asset-pricing models for a market characterized by few large capitalization firms," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(1), pages 68-84, January.
    6. Auer Benjamin R., 2012. "Lassen sich CAPM, HCAPM und CCAPM durch konsumbasierte zeitvariable Parameterspezifikation rehabilitieren? / Can Time-varying Parameter Specification Based on Consumption Variables Rehabilitate CAPM, ," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(5), pages 518-544, October.
    7. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "Conditional pricing of currency risk in Africa's equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 133-155.
    8. Breig, Christoph & Elsas, Ralf, 2009. "Default Risk and Equity Returns: A Comparison of the Bank-Based German and the U.S. Financial System," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 10978, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    9. Lischewski, Judith & Voronkova, Svitlana, 2012. "Size, value and liquidity. Do They Really Matter on an Emerging Stock Market?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 8-25.
    10. Iqbal, Javed & Brooks, Robert & Galagedera, Don U.A., 2010. "Testing conditional asset pricing models: An emerging market perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 897-918, September.
    11. Hanauer, Matthias & Kaserer, Christoph & Rapp, Marc Steffen, 2011. "Risikofaktoren und Multifaktormodelle für den Deutschen Aktienmarkt (Risk Factors and Multi-Factor Models for the German Stock Market)," CEFS Working Paper Series 2011-01, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).
    12. Nader Shahzad Virk & Hilal Anwar Butt, 2016. "Specification errors of asset-pricing models for a market characterized by few large capitalization firms," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(1), pages 68-84, January.
    13. Artmann, Sabine & Finter, Philipp & Kempf, Alexander, 2010. "Determinants of expected stock returns: Large sample evidence from the German market," CFR Working Papers 10-01, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    14. Artmann, Sabine & Finter, Philipp & Kempf, Alexander, 2011. "Determinants of expected stock returns: Large sample evidence from the German market," CFR Working Papers 10-01 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    15. Christian Fieberg & Armin Varmaz & Thorsten Poddig, 2016. "Covariances vs. characteristics: what does explain the cross section of the German stock market returns?," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 9(1), pages 27-50, April.
    16. Wallmeier, Martin & Tauscher, Kathrin, 2012. "A Note on the Impact of Portfolio Overlapping in Tests of the Fama and French Three-Factor Model," FSES Working Papers 433, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    17. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "The conditional pricing of currency and inflation risks in Africa's equity markets," MPRA Paper 56100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ammann, Manuel & Frey, Roman & Verhofen, Michael, 2012. "Do Newspaper Articles Predict Aggregate Stock Returns?," Working Papers on Finance 1204, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.

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