Is the Currency Risk Priced in Equity Markets?
In this paper we investigate whether the currency risk is priced in international stock markets. We suggest a parsimonious version of the international capital asset pricing model with an EGARCH-M(1,1) specification of the second moments' dynamics of stock and currency returns, assuming that the latter follow a multivariate t-distribution. This specification allows for asymmetric responses of volatility to stock and currency news, including leverage effects. Our results suggest that the currency risk is priced in international stock markets, once asymmetries in volatility are taken into account. The currency premium is found to be significant on both statistic and economic grounds. We find that a dynamic portfolio strategy that hedges against currency changes provides higher returns (as a reward for currency premium) than a strategy which ignores them.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +44 (0) 20 7882 5096
Fax: +44 (0) 20 8983 3580
Web page: http://www.econ.qmul.ac.uk
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Santis, Giorgio De & Gerard, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre, 1999. "International Portfolio Management, Currency Risk and the Euro," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt7988m6jk, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Bansal, Ravi & Hsieh, David A & Viswanathan, S, 1993. " A New Approach to International Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1719-47, December.
- G. William Schwert, 1990.
"Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?,"
NBER Working Papers
2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December.
- Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. " The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-79, June.
- Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1989.
" The Time Variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 307-25, June.
- Alberto Giovannini & Philippe Jorion, 1988. "The Time-Variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 2573, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- De Santis, Giorgio & Gerard, Bruno, 1998. "How big is the premium for currency risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 375-412, September.
- Harvey, Campbell R. & Zhou, Guofu, 1993.
"International asset pricing with alternative distributional specifications,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 107-131, June.
- Campbell R. Harvey & Guofu Zhou, 1993. "International asset pricing with alternative distributional specifications," CEMA Working Papers 277, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Berkowitz, Jeremy, 2001. "Testing Density Forecasts, with Applications to Risk Management," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 465-74, October.
- Lorenzo CAPPIELLO & Tom A. Fearnley, 2000. "International CAPM with Regime Switching GARCH Parameters," FAME Research Paper Series rp17, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
- Solnik, Bruno H., 1974. "An equilibrium model of the international capital market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 500-524, August.
- Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
- Chan, K. C. & Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, ReneM., 1992.
"Global financial markets and the risk premium on U.S. equity,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 137-167, October.
- K.C. Chan & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 1992. "Global Financial Markets and the Risk Premium on U.S. Equity," NBER Working Papers 4074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Braun, Phillip A & Nelson, Daniel B & Sunier, Alain M, 1995. " Good News, Bad News, Volatility, and Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1575-1603, December.
- De Santis, Giorgio & Gerard, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre, 2003. "The relevance of currency risk in the EMU," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 427-462.
- Zhou, Guofu, 1993. " Asset-Pricing Tests under Alternative Distributions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1927-42, December.
- Adler, Michael & Dumas, Bernard, 1983. " International Portfolio Choice and Corporation Finance: A Synthesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 925-84, June.
- Jorion, Philippe, 1991. "The Pricing of Exchange Rate Risk in the Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 363-376, September.
- Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-66.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp511. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nick Vriend)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.