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Risk Adjustment and Trading Strategies

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  • Dong-Hyun Ahn
  • Jennifer Conrad
  • Robert F. Dittmar

Abstract

We assess the profitability of momentum strategies using a stochastic discount factor approach. In unconditional tests, approximately half of the strategies' profitability is explained. In conditional tests we see a further slight decline in profits. We argue that the risk of these strategies should be increasing in the market risk premium. Empirically, while their risk measures estimated relative to the stochastic discount factor behave as predicted, market betas do not; thus capital asset pricing model (CAPM)-like benchmarks may lead to incorrect inferences. Given that our nonparametric risk adjustment explains roughly half of momentum strategy profits, we cannot rule out the possibility of residual mispricing. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jennifer Conrad & Robert F. Dittmar, 2003. "Risk Adjustment and Trading Strategies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 459-485.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:16:y:2003:i:2:p:459-485
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    1. repec:eee:finmar:v:38:y:2018:i:c:p:39-59 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bettman, Jenni L. & Maher, Thomas R.B. & Sault, Stephen J., 2009. "Momentum profits in the Australian equity market: A matched firm approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 565-579, November.
    3. Chordia, Tarun & Shivakumar, Lakshmanan, 2006. "Earnings and price momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 627-656, June.
    4. Hong Zhang, 2004. "Dynamic Beta, Time-Varying Risk Premium, and Momentum," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2637, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2005.
    5. Raymond Kan & Guofu Zhou, 2012. "Tests of Mean-Variance Spanning," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 13(1), pages 139-187, May.
    6. repec:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:10:p:30-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2017. "Monetary Momentum," CESifo Working Paper Series 6648, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Fernando F. Ferreira & A. Christian Silva & Ju-Yi Yen, 2014. "Information ratio analysis of momentum strategies," Papers 1402.3030, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2014.
    9. repec:eur:ejesjr:184 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Fletcher, Jonathan & Kihanda, Joseph, 2005. "An examination of alternative CAPM-based models in UK stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2995-3014, December.
    11. Laura X.L. Liu & Jerold B. Warner & Lu Zhang, 2005. "Momentum Profits and Macroeconomic Risk," NBER Working Papers 11480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Chen, Hong-Yi & Chen, Sheng-Syan & Hsin, Chin-Wen & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2014. "Does revenue momentum drive or ride earnings or price momentum?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 166-185.
    13. Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Ooi, Yao Hua & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2012. "Time series momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 228-250.
    14. repec:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:5:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Szu-Yin Hung & John Glascock, 2010. "Volatilities and Momentum Returns in Real Estate Investment Trusts," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 126-149, August.
    16. Sandrine Jacob Leal, 2015. "Fundamentalists, chartists and asset pricing anomalies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 1837-1850, November.
    17. Sandrine Jacob Leal, 2013. "Momentum effect in individual stocks and heterogeneous beliefs among fundamentalists," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 3102-3116.
    18. Min, Byoung-Kyu & Kim, Tong Suk, 2012. "Are good-news firms riskier than bad-news firms?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1528-1535.
    19. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2017. "International stock return predictability: Evidence from new statistical tests," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 97-113.
    20. Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2001. "Downside Risk and the Momentum Effect," NBER Working Papers 8643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Wang, Jun & Wu, Yangru, 2011. "Risk adjustment and momentum sources," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1427-1435, June.
    22. repec:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:12:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Chen, Hong-Yi & Lee, Cheng-Few & Shih, Wei K., 2016. "Technical, fundamental, and combined information for separating winners from losers," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 224-242.
    24. Chris Stivers & Licheng Sun, 2013. "Market Cycles and the Performance of Relative Strength Strategies," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 263-290, June.
    25. Jonathan Fletcher & Andrew Marshall, 2005. "The Performance of UK International Unit Trusts," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(3), pages 365-386.

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