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A Multifactor Explanation of Post-Earnings Announcement Drift

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  • Kim, Dongcheol
  • Kim, Myungsun

Abstract

To explain post-earnings announcement drift, we construct a risk factor related to unexpected earnings surprise, and propose a four-factor model by adding this risk factor to Fama and French's (1993), (1995) three-factor model. This earnings surprise risk factor provides a remarkable improvement in explaining post-earnings announcement drift when included in addition to the three factors of Fama and French. After adjusting raw returns for the four risk factors, the cumulative abnormal returns over the 60 trading days subsequent to quarterly earnings announcements are economically and statistically insignificant. Furthermore, except for the first two days after the earnings announcement, the cumulative abnormal returns and the arbitrage returns from our four-factor model are relatively stable over the testing period and never significant on any day of the testing period. On the other hand, the arbitrage returns from the other models increase over the 60-day testing period. We argue that most of the post-earnings announcement drift observed in prior studies may be a result of using misspecified models and failing to appropriately adjust raw returns for risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Dongcheol & Kim, Myungsun, 2003. "A Multifactor Explanation of Post-Earnings Announcement Drift," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 383-398, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:38:y:2003:i:02:p:383-398_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fink, Josef, 2021. "A review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    2. Bixia Xu, 2006. "R&D Progress, stock price volatility, and post-announcement drift: An empirical investigation into biotech firms," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 391-408, June.
    3. Cai, Yu & Lau, Sie Ting, 2015. "Informed trading around earnings and mutual fund alphas," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 168-180.
    4. Sadka, Ronnie, 2006. "Momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift anomalies: The role of liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 309-349, May.
    5. Josef Fink & Stefan Palan & Erik Theissen, 2020. "Earnings Autocorrelation and the Post-Earnings-AnnouncementDrift – Experimental Evidence," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2020-03, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.
    6. repec:fau:fauart:v:65:y:2015:i:1:p:84-104 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Fink, Josef & Palan, Stefan & Theissen, Erik, 2020. "Earnings autocorrelation and the post-earnings-announcement drift: Experimental evidence," CFR Working Papers 20-10, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    8. Zhengxin Joseph Ye & Bjorn W. Schuller, 2020. "Capturing dynamics of post-earnings-announcement drift using genetic algorithm-optimised supervised learning," Papers 2009.03094, arXiv.org.
    9. Zaremba Adam & Konieczka Przemysław, 2017. "Size, Value, and Momentum in Polish Equity Returns: Local or International Factors?," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 53(3), pages 26-47, September.
    10. Jang, Woan-Yuh & Lee, Jie-Haun & Hu, Hsueh-Chin, 2016. "Halo, horn, or dark horse biases: Corporate reputation and the earnings announcement puzzle," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 272-289.
    11. Josef Fink, 2020. "A Review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2020-04, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.
    12. Li, Zhaochu & Lytvynenko, Iryna P., 2021. "Currency fluctuations and the post-earnings announcement drift," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    13. Min, Byoung-Kyu & Kim, Tong Suk, 2012. "Are good-news firms riskier than bad-news firms?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1528-1535.
    14. Qi Zhang & Charlie Cai & Kevin Keasey, 2014. "The profitability, costs and systematic risk of the post-earnings-announcement-drift trading strategy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 605-625, October.
    15. Martineau, Charles, 2021. "Rest in Peace Post-Earnings Announcement Drift," SocArXiv z7k3p, Center for Open Science.
    16. Keith Lam & Frank Li & Simon So, 2010. "On the validity of the augmented Fama and French’s (1993) model: evidence from the Hong Kong stock market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 89-111, July.
    17. Gyamfi-Yeboah, Frank & Ling, David C. & Naranjo, Andy, 2012. "Information, uncertainty, and behavioral effects: Evidence from abnormal returns around real estate investment trust earnings announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1930-1952.

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