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Long-Run Cash-Flow and Discount-Rate Risks in the Cross-Section of US Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Michail Koubouros

    (Department of Economics University of Peloponnese)

  • Dimitrios Malliaropulos

    (Department of Banking and Financial Management University of Piraeus and EFG-Eurobank)

  • Ekaterini Panopoulou

    (Department of Economics National University of Ireland Maynooth)

Abstract

This paper decomposes the overall market beta of common stocks into four parts reflecting uncertainty related to the long-run dynamics of stock- specific and market-wide cash flows and discount rates. We employ a discrete time version of Merton�s Intertemporal CAPM to test whether these four sources of risk command different risk prices. The model performs well in pricing average returns on single- and double- sorted portfolios according to size, book-to-market, dividend-price ratios and past risk. It generates high estimates for the explained cross-sectional variation in average returns, lower average pricing errors than the Fama-French three factor model and economically and statistically acceptable estimates for the coefficient of relative risk aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Michail Koubouros & Dimitrios Malliaropulos & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2005. "Long-Run Cash-Flow and Discount-Rate Risks in the Cross-Section of US Returns," Finance 0505009, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Jan 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0505009
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 42
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. John Y. Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2010. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 305-344, January.
    2. Botshekan, Mahmoud & Kraeussl, Roman & Lucas, Andre, 2012. "Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What Is Actually Priced?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(06), pages 1279-1301, December.
    3. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Michail Koubouros, 2005. "Intertemporal Market Risks and the Cross-Section of Greek Average Returns," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1611205, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    4. Bahel, Eric & Trudeau, Christian, 2014. "Stable lexicographic rules for shortest path games," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 266-269.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CAPM; cash-flow risk; discount-rate risk; asset pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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