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Peso Problems in the Estimation of the C-CAPM

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  • Schrimpf, Paul
  • Parra-Alvarez, Juan Carlos
  • Posch, Olaf

Abstract

This paper shows that the consumption-based capital asset pricing model (C-CAPM) with low-probability disaster risk rationalizes pricing errors. We find that implausible estimates of risk aversion and time preference are not puzzling if market participants expect a future catastrophic change in fundamentals, which just happens not to occur in the sample (a ‘peso problem’). A bias in structural parameter estimates emerges as a result of pricing errors in quiet times. While the bias essentially removes the pricing error in the simple models when risk-free rates are constant, time-variation may also generate large and persistent estimated pricing errors in simulated data. We also show analytically how the problem of biased estimates can be avoided in empirical research by resolving the misspecification in moment conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Schrimpf, Paul & Parra-Alvarez, Juan Carlos & Posch, Olaf, 2021. "Peso Problems in the Estimation of the C-CAPM," CEPR Discussion Papers 16299, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16299
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    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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