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On the sources of private information in FX markets

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  • Moore, Michael J.
  • Payne, Richard

Abstract

We investigate the source of information advantage in inter-dealer FX trading using data on trades and counter-party identities. In liquid dollar exchange rates, information is concentrated among dealers that trade most frequently and specialize their activity in a particular rate. In cross-rates, traders that engage in triangular arbitrage are best informed. Better-informed traders are also located on larger trading floors. In cross-rates, the ability to forecast flows explains all of the advantage of the triangular arbitrageurs. In liquid dollar rates, specialist traders can forecast both order-flow and the component of exchange rate changes that is uncorrelated with flow.

Suggested Citation

  • Moore, Michael J. & Payne, Richard, 2011. "On the sources of private information in FX markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1250-1262, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:5:p:1250-1262
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ligon, James A. & Liu, Hao-Chen, 2013. "The relation of trade size and price contribution in a traditional foreign exchange brokered market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1024-1045.
    3. Kitamura, Yoshihiro, 2016. "The probability of informed trading measured with price impact, price reversal, and volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 77-90.
    4. Chen, Yu-Lun & Gau, Yin-Feng, 2014. "Asymmetric responses of ask and bid quotes to information in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 194-204.
    5. Gradojevic, Nikola & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Gençay, Ramazan, 2020. "A new wavelet-based ultra-high-frequency analysis of triangular currency arbitrage," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 57-73.
    6. Schreiber, Ben Z., 2014. "Identifying speculators in the FX market: A microstructure approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 97-119.
    7. M. Frömmel & F Van Gysegem, 2014. "Bid-Ask Spread Components on the Foreign Exchange Market: Quantifying the Risk Component," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 14/878, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    8. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Carol Osler, 2012. "Market Microstructure and the Profitability of Currency Trading," Working Papers 48, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    10. Ranaldo, Angelo & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2021. "Asymmetric information risk in FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 391-411.
    11. Alain Chaboud & Dagfinn Rime & Vladyslav Sushko, 2023. "The foreign exchange market," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 12, pages 253-275, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Michael R. King & Carol Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2011. "Foreign exchange market structure, players and evolution," Working Paper 2011/10, Norges Bank.
    13. Ramazan Gençay & Nikola Gradojevic & Richard Olsen & Faruk Selçuk, 2015. "Informed traders’ arrival in foreign exchange markets: Does geography matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1431-1462, December.
    14. Eichengreen, Barry & Mehl, Arnaud & Lafarguette, Romain, 2016. "Cables, Sharks and Servers: Technology and the Geography of the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 11053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Ying-Sing Liu, 2021. "The Impact of Trading Information Sets on Exchange Rate Change and Volatility: Evidence From Taiwan," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, November.
    16. Cheng, Lian & Luo, Junru & Liu, Lin, 2018. "Is Renminbi a (Truly) International Currency? An Evaluation Based on Offshore Foreign Exchange Market Trading Patterns," MPRA Paper 89279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Frino, Alex & Ibikunle, Gbenga & Mollica, Vito & Steffen, Tom, 2018. "The impact of commodity benchmarks on derivatives markets: The case of the dated Brent assessment and Brent futures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 27-43.
    18. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    19. Geir H. Bjønnes & Carol L. Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2021. "Price discovery in two‐tier markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 3109-3133, April.
    20. Carol Osler & Xuhang Wang, 2012. "The Microstructure of Currency Markets," Working Papers 49, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    21. Liu, Yang & Han, Liyan & Yin, Libo, 2019. "News implied volatility and long-term foreign exchange market volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 126-142.
    22. Wu, Zhen-Xing & Gau, Yin-Feng & Chen, Yu-Lun, 2023. "Price discovery and triangular arbitrage in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    23. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Information Flows in Foreign Exchange Markets: Dissecting Customer Currency Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 601-634, April.
    24. Lock, Eduardo & Winkelried, Diego, 2015. "Flujos de órdenes en el mercado cambiario y el valor intrínseco del Nuevo Sol," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 29, pages 33-54.

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