IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfin/v42y2016icp77-90.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The probability of informed trading measured with price impact, price reversal, and volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Kitamura, Yoshihiro

Abstract

Contemporaneous and positive correlation between order flow and exchange rate is a stylized fact. I postulate that the order flow driven by informed trading has a significant price impact. I also do that little price reversal occurs in the subsequent period. The Markov-switching model provides probabilities of a significant price impact and little price reversal. I apply these probabilities to measure the probability of informed trading. The measure explains a greater share of the random walk component of price compared to other measures offered by previous studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kitamura, Yoshihiro, 2016. "The probability of informed trading measured with price impact, price reversal, and volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 77-90.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:42:y:2016:i:c:p:77-90
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2016.02.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042443116300014
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.intfin.2016.02.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Kubota, Keiichi & Takehara, Hitoshi, 2009. "Information based trade, the PIN variable, and portfolio style differences: Evidence from Tokyo stock exchange firms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 319-337, June.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    4. Killeen, William P. & Lyons, Richard K. & Moore, Michael J., 2006. "Fixed versus flexible: Lessons from EMS order flow," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 551-579, June.
    5. Duarte, Jefferson & Young, Lance, 2009. "Why is PIN priced?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 119-138, February.
    6. Martin D. D. Evans, 2002. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2405-2447, December.
    7. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2011. "What causes exchange rate volatility? Evidence from selected EMU members and candidates for EMU membership countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 39-61, February.
    8. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
    9. McInish, Thomas H & Wood, Robert A, 1992. "An Analysis of Intraday Patterns in Bid/Ask Spreads for NYSE Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 753-764, June.
    10. Ito, Takatoshi & Hashimoto, Yuko, 2006. "Intraday seasonality in activities of the foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the electronic broking system," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 637-664, December.
    11. John Owens & Douglas G. Steigerwald, 2005. "Inferring Information Frequency and Quality," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 500-524.
    12. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 72-88, January.
    13. Osler, Carol L. & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Price discovery in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1696-1718.
    14. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
    15. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-291.
    16. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    17. McGroarty, Frank & ap Gwilym, Owain & Thomas, Stephen, 2009. "The role of private information in return volatility, bid-ask spreads and price levels in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 387-401, April.
    18. David Easley & Robert F. Engle & Maureen O'Hara & Liuren Wu, 2008. "Time-Varying Arrival Rates of Informed and Uninformed Trades," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 171-207, Spring.
    19. Easley, David & Hvidkjaer, Soeren & O’Hara, Maureen, 2010. "Factoring Information into Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 293-309, April.
    20. Berger, David W. & Chaboud, Alain P. & Chernenko, Sergey V. & Howorka, Edward & Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Order flow and exchange rate dynamics in electronic brokerage system data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 93-109, May.
    21. Akay, Ozgur (Ozzy) & Cyree, Ken B. & Griffiths, Mark D. & Winters, Drew B., 2012. "What does PIN identify? Evidence from the T-bill market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-46.
    22. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
    23. Jackson, David, 2013. "Estimating PIN for firms with high levels of trading," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 116-120.
    24. Chung, Kee H. & Li, Mingsheng & McInish, Thomas H., 2005. "Information-based trading, price impact of trades, and trade autocorrelation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1645-1669, July.
    25. Yan, Yuxing & Zhang, Shaojun, 2012. "An improved estimation method and empirical properties of the probability of informed trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 454-467.
    26. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Amit Goyal, 2006. "The Impact of Trades on Daily Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1241-1277.
    27. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    28. William Lin, Hsiou-Wei & Ke, Wen-Chyan, 2011. "A computing bias in estimating the probability of informed trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 625-640, November.
    29. Gençay, Ramazan & Gradojevic, Nikola, 2013. "Private information and its origins in an electronic foreign exchange market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 86-93.
    30. Jiang, George J. & Lo, Ingrid, 2014. "Private information flow and price discovery in the U.S. treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 118-133.
    31. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    32. Wang, Jiang, 1994. "A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 127-168, February.
    33. Easley, David, et al, 1996. "Liquidity, Information, and Infrequently Traded Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1405-1436, September.
    34. Chang, Sanders S. & Chang, Lenisa V. & Wang, F. Albert, 2014. "A dynamic intraday measure of the probability of informed trading and firm-specific return variation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 80-94.
    35. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. "Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
    36. Moore, Michael J. & Payne, Richard, 2011. "On the sources of private information in FX markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1250-1262, May.
    37. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hung-Wen Lin & Kun-Ben Lin & Jing-Bo Huang & Shu-Heng Chen, 2021. "Timely Loss Recognition Helps Nothing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-24, July.
    2. Csóka, Péter & Hevér, Judit, 2018. "Portfolio valuation under liquidity constraints with permanent price impact," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 235-241.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    3. Lof, Matthijs & Bommel, Jos van, 2018. "Asymmetric information and the distribution of trading volume," Research Discussion Papers 1, Bank of Finland.
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:001 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Lof, Matthijs & van Bommel, Jos, 2023. "Asymmetric information and the distribution of trading volume," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Thomas Pöppe & Michael Aitken & Dirk Schiereck & Ingo Wiegand, 2016. "A PIN per day shows what news convey: the intraday probability of informed trading," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1187-1220, November.
    8. Kitamura, Yoshihiro, 2017. "Simple measures of market efficiency: A study in foreign exchange markets," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-16.
    9. Ersan, Oguz & Alıcı, Aslı, 2016. "An unbiased computation methodology for estimating the probability of informed trading (PIN)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 74-94.
    10. Agudelo, Diego A. & Giraldo, Santiago & Villarraga, Edwin, 2015. "Does PIN measure information? Informed trading effects on returns and liquidity in six emerging markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 149-161.
    11. Malinova, Katya & Park, Andreas, 2014. "The impact of competition and information on intraday trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 55-71.
    12. Ranaldo, Angelo & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2021. "Asymmetric information risk in FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 391-411.
    13. Ranaldo, Angelo & de Magistris, Paolo Santucci, 2022. "Liquidity in the global currency market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 859-883.
    14. Yoshihiro Kitamura, 2011. "The Impact of Order Flow on the Foreign Exchange Market: A Copula Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 18(1), pages 1-31, March.
    15. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
    16. Chang, Sanders S. & Wang, F. Albert, 2015. "Adverse selection and the presence of informed trading," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 19-33.
    17. Elaut, Gert & Frömmel, Michael & Lampaert, Kevin, 2018. "Intraday momentum in FX markets: Disentangling informed trading from liquidity provision," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 35-51.
    18. Ramazan Gençay & Nikola Gradojevic & Richard Olsen & Faruk Selçuk, 2015. "Informed traders’ arrival in foreign exchange markets: Does geography matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1431-1462, December.
    19. Cosmin Octavian Cepoi & Victor Dragotă & Ruxandra Trifan & Andreea Iordache, 2023. "Probability of informed trading during the COVID-19 pandemic: the case of the Romanian stock market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.
    20. Kitamura, Yoshihiro, 2010. "Testing for intraday interdependence and volatility spillover among the euro, the pound and the Swiss franc markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 158-171, June.
    21. Viet Hoang Nguyen & Yongcheol Shin, 2011. "Asymmetric Price Impacts of Order Flow on Exchange Rate Dynamics," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2011n14, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    22. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:42:y:2016:i:c:p:77-90. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.