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A computing bias in estimating the probability of informed trading

  • William Lin, Hsiou-Wei
  • Ke, Wen-Chyan
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    This study identifies a factor that leads to a bias in estimating the probability of informed trading (PIN), a widely-used microstructure measure. It is shown that, along with the numerical maximization of the likelihood function for PIN, the floating-point exception (i.e., overflow or underflow) may eliminate feasible solutions to the actual parameters in the optimization problem. Approximately 44% of PIN estimates for recent stock market data may have been subject to a downward bias that is more pronounced for active stocks than for inactive stocks. This study develops a remedy to mitigate the resulting bias.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1386418111000176
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Markets.

    Volume (Year): 14 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 4 (November)
    Pages: 625-640

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:14:y:2011:i:4:p:625-640
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/finmar

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    1. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
    2. Grammig, Joachim & Schiereck, Dirk & Theissen, Erik, 2001. "Knowing me, knowing you: : Trader anonymity and informed trading in parallel markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, October.
    3. David Easley & Soeren Hvidkjaer & Maureen O'Hara, 2002. "Is Information Risk a Determinant of Asset Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2185-2221, October.
    4. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Grammig, Joachim & Theissen, Erik, 2007. "Estimating the probability of informed trading--does trade misclassification matter?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 26-47, February.
    5. Duarte, Jefferson & Young, Lance, 2009. "Why is PIN priced?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 119-138, February.
    6. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen & Paperman, Joseph, 1998. "Financial analysts and information-based trade," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 175-201, August.
    7. Easley, David, et al, 1996. " Liquidity, Information, and Infrequently Traded Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1405-36, September.
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