Information based trade, the PIN variable, and portfolio style differences: Evidence from Tokyo stock exchange firms
We investigate whether the variables related to information based trade proposed by Easley et al. [Easley, D., Kiefer, N.M., O'Hara, M., Paperman, J.B., 1996. Liquidity, information, and infrequently traded stocks. Journal of Finance 51, 1405-1436.] help explain the daily price discovery process in an electronically order-driven market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange using the microstructure tick data. We find strong evidence that the value firms show higher probability of bad news occurrences than the growth firms. We also find that the PIN is higher for smaller firms as is the case in the U.S. With the portfolio ranking tests and the Fama and MacBeth test we find that the alpha variable, which represents the information event occurrence rate, is systematically related to required returns, while the evidence related to the PIN is weaker. In the final Fama and MacBeth test, in which the PIN or alpha variable is used as an additional explanatory variable to the benchmark Fama and French three factor model, we find that the sign of the alpha variable supports our hypothesis that the arrival of new information reduces the risk of the stock, though not significantly. We also find that the higher PIN value increases the risk of the stock, at the same time it can marginally improve the explanatory power of the multifactor model. We conclude that the PIN variable cannot be a substitutable proxy variable for the book-to-market factor unlike in the U.S., and that it is strongly related to the size variable.
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