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Information-Based Trade in the Shanghai StockMarket

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  • Copeland, Laurence

    () (Cardiff Business School)

  • Wong, Woon K

    () (Cardiff Business School)

  • Zeng, Y

Abstract

We show that the probability of information-based trade (PIN) played a significant role in explaining monthly returns on Shanghai A shares over the period 2001 to 2006. In particular, PIN, as approximated by order imbalance as a proportion of total transactions, appears to explain returns even after controlling for risk in the much-cited Fama and French (1992) three-factor model. However, we also find that some of the PIN effect appears to be indistinguishable from a turnover effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Copeland, Laurence & Wong, Woon K & Zeng, Y, 2008. "Information-Based Trade in the Shanghai StockMarket," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2008/2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. David Easley & Soeren Hvidkjaer & Maureen O'Hara, 2002. "Is Information Risk a Determinant of Asset Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2185-2221, October.
    3. Xu, Cheng Kenneth, 2000. "The microstructure of the Chinese stock market," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 79-97.
    4. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    5. Gary Tian & Mingyuan Guo, 2007. "Interday and intraday volatility: Additional evidence from the Shanghai Stock Exchange," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 287-306, April.
    6. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    7. David Easley & Robert F. Engle & Maureen O'Hara & Liuren Wu, 2008. "Time-Varying Arrival Rates of Informed and Uninformed Trades," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 6(2), pages 171-207, Spring.
    8. David Easley & Maureen O'hara, 2004. "Information and the Cost of Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1553-1583, August.
    9. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kang, Moonsoo, 2010. "Probability of information-based trading and the January effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2985-2994, December.

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