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New evidence on economic policy uncertainty and equity premium

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  • Li, Xiao-Ming

Abstract

Motivated by well-documented observations that the Chinese equity market is dominated by risk-seeking speculators with a behavioural bias, we test the hypothesis that China's economic policy uncertainty (EPU) commands a positive equity premium. We find stocks with higher EPU betas earn higher average returns, and the EPU factor-mimicking portfolio earns significant abnormal returns. Loadings on the EPU factor positively forecast the cross-section of returns on various sets of portfolios or stocks, controlling for macroeconomic and stock market uncertainty factors, conventional risk factors, and firm characteristics. Our findings are complimentary to the recently reported US evidence of a negative premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Xiao-Ming, 2017. "New evidence on economic policy uncertainty and equity premium," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA), pages 41-56.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:46:y:2017:i:pa:p:41-56
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2017.08.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Jian Chen & Fuwei Jiang & Guoshi Tong, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty in China and stock market expected returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(5), pages 1265-1286, December.
    2. Chen, Xiaoyu & Chiang, Thomas C., 2020. "Empirical investigation of changes in policy uncertainty on stock returns—Evidence from China’s market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    3. Yang, Zhenyi & Yu, Yiwei & Zhang, Yubing & Zhou, Sili, 2019. "Policy uncertainty exposure and market value: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    4. Yao, Shouyu & Wang, Chunfeng & Cui, Xin & Fang, Zhenming, 2019. "Idiosyncratic skewness, gambling preference, and cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 464-483.
    5. Yu, Honghai & Fang, Libing & Sun, Wencong, 2018. "Forecasting performance of global economic policy uncertainty for volatility of Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 931-940.
    6. Jianyu Zeng & Teng Zhong & Fan He, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate inventory holdings: evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1727-1757, June.
    7. Chiang, Thomas C., 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, risk and stock returns: Evidence from G7 stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 41-49.
    8. Libing Fang & Baizhu Chen & Honghai Yu & Yichuo Qian, 2018. "The importance of global economic policy uncertainty in predicting gold futures market volatility: A GARCH‐MIDAS approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 413-422, March.
    9. Xuejun Jin & Ziqing Chen & Xiaolan Yang, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1291-1318, March.
    10. Hsieh, Hui-Ching & Boarelli, Sofia & Vu, Thi Huyen Chi, 2019. "The effects of economic policy uncertainty on outward foreign direct investment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 377-392.
    11. Luo, Yan & Zhang, Chenyang, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    12. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Nehler, Henrik & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Uncertainties and extreme risk spillover in the energy markets: A time-varying copula-based CoVaR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-126.
    13. Helseth, Marius Aleksander Emblem & Krakstad, Svein Olav & Molnár, Peter & Norlin, Karl-Martin, 2020. "Can policy and financial risk predict stock markets?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 701-719.
    14. Thomas C. Chiang, 2019. "Market Efficiency and News Dynamics: Evidence from International Equity Markets," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(1), pages 1-1, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; equity premium; Government policy uncertainty; Misvaluation; China;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • N35 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Asia including Middle East

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