IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v136y2022ics0165188922000185.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What drives intraday reversal? illiquidity or liquidity oversupply?

Author

Listed:
  • Kang, Junqing
  • Lin, Shen
  • Xiong, Xiong

Abstract

Previous studies of the U.S. market regard short-term reversal as compensation for liquidity provision. However, we find that intraday reversal has no significant dependence on stock liquidity in the Chinese market. Hence, based on a stylized framework, we propose an alternative explanation: irrational uninformed liquidity providers, who underestimate the information component in the equilibrium price due to physiological anchoring, trade against previous price movement, which generates an opposing price pressure. The empirical results confirm this explanation of liquidity oversupply (from irrational uninformed liquidity providers). The negative correlation between previous intraday returns and future returns in the Chinese market is reversed once we extend the holding period. This indicates that reversal is a pricing error due to excessive liquidity provision from uninformed retail traders instead of a price correction from a temporary price concession due to a lack of liquidity.

Suggested Citation

  • Kang, Junqing & Lin, Shen & Xiong, Xiong, 2022. "What drives intraday reversal? illiquidity or liquidity oversupply?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:136:y:2022:i:c:s0165188922000185
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104313
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188922000185
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104313?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Kai, 2015. "Profitability of time series momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 140-157.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    4. Stefan Nagel, 2012. "Evaporating Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2005-2039.
    5. Han, Bing & Kumar, Alok, 2013. "Speculative Retail Trading and Asset Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 377-404, April.
    6. Gao, Lei & Han, Yufeng & Zhengzi Li, Sophia & Zhou, Guofu, 2018. "Market intraday momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 394-414.
    7. Jianping Mei & Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2009. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: Evidence from Chinese A-B Share Premia," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(2), pages 225-255, November.
    8. Lou, Dong & Polk, Christopher & Skouras, Spyros, 2019. "A tug of war: overnight versus intraday expected returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Lou, Dong & Polk, Christopher & Skouras, Spyros, 2019. "A tug of war: Overnight versus intraday expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 192-213.
    10. Berkman, Henk & Koch, Paul D. & Tuttle, Laura & Zhang, Ying Jenny, 2012. "Paying Attention: Overnight Returns and the Hidden Cost of Buying at the Open," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(4), pages 715-741, August.
    11. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 361-407.
    12. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-787, October.
    13. Wei Xiong & Jialin Yu, 2011. "The Chinese Warrants Bubble," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2723-2753, October.
    14. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    15. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. "Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
    16. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205.
    17. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    18. Hendershott, Terrence & Livdan, Dmitry & Rösch, Dominik, 2020. "Asset pricing: A tale of night and day," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 635-662.
    19. Cox, Don R & Peterson, David R, 1994. "Stock Returns Following Large One-Day Declines: Evidence on Short-Term Reversals and Longer-Term Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 255-267, March.
    20. Qiao, Kenan & Dam, Lammertjan, 2020. "The overnight return puzzle and the “T+1” trading rule in Chinese stock markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    21. Zhi Da & Qianqiu Liu & Ernst Schaumburg, 2014. "A Closer Look at the Short-Term Return Reversal," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(3), pages 658-674, March.
    22. Bailey, Warren & Cai, Jun & Cheung, Yan Leung & Wang, Fenghua, 2009. "Stock returns, order imbalances, and commonality: Evidence on individual, institutional, and proprietary investors in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 9-19, January.
    23. Han, Xing & Li, Kai & Li, Youwei, 2020. "Investor overconfidence and the security market line: New evidence from China," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    24. Steven L. Heston & Robert A. Korajczyk & Ronnie Sadka, 2010. "Intraday Patterns in the Cross‐section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1369-1407, August.
    25. Wei Xiong & Jialin Yu, 2011. "The Chinese Warrants Bubble," Working Papers 1398, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
    26. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    27. Seasholes, Mark S. & Wu, Guojun, 2007. "Predictable behavior, profits, and attention," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 590-610, December.
    28. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    29. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    30. Jegadeesh N. & Titman S., 1995. "Short-Horizon Return Reversals and the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 116-132, April.
    31. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 1-28.
    32. Easley, David & O’Hara, Maureen & Yang, Liyan, 2016. "Differential Access to Price Information in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(4), pages 1071-1110, August.
    33. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Amit Goyal, 2006. "Liquidity and Autocorrelations in Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2365-2394, October.
    34. Dugast, Jérôme & Foucault, Thierry, 2018. "Data abundance and asset price informativeness," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 367-391.
    35. Baltussen, Guido & Da, Zhi & Lammers, Sten & Martens, Martin, 2021. "Hedging demand and market intraday momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 377-403.
    36. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    37. Kendall, Chad, 2018. "The time cost of information in financial markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 118-157.
    38. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    39. Li Pan & Ya Tang & Jianguo Xu, 2016. "Speculative Trading and Stock Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(5), pages 1835-1865.
    40. Snehal Banerjee & Jesse Davis & Naveen Gondhi, 2018. "When Transparency Improves, Must Prices Reflect Fundamentals Better?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(6), pages 2377-2414.
    41. Lee, Charles M. C. & Radhakrishna, Balkrishna, 2000. "Inferring investor behavior: Evidence from TORQ data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 83-111, May.
    42. Bremer, Marc & Sweeney, Richard J, 1991. "The Reversal of Large Stock-Price Decreases," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 747-754, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    2. Kang, Moonsoo & Khaksari, S. & Nam, Kiseok, 2018. "Corporate investment, short-term return reversal, and stock liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 68-83.
    3. Lu, Zhongjin & Malliaris, Steven & Qin, Zhongling, 2023. "Heterogeneous liquidity providers and night-minus-day return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 175-200.
    4. Bianchi, Daniele & Babiak, Mykola & Dickerson, Alexander, 2022. "Trading volume and liquidity provision in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. Jacobs, Heiko, 2015. "What explains the dynamics of 100 anomalies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 65-85.
    6. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, November.
    7. Cosemans, Mathijs & Frehen, Rik, 2021. "Salience theory and stock prices: Empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 460-483.
    8. Zhi Da & Qianqiu Liu & Ernst Schaumburg, 2014. "A Closer Look at the Short-Term Return Reversal," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(3), pages 658-674, March.
    9. Akbas, Ferhat & Boehmer, Ekkehart & Jiang, Chao & Koch, Paul D., 2022. "Overnight returns, daytime reversals, and future stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 850-875.
    10. Andy C W Chui & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Sheridan Titman, 2022. "Momentum, Reversals, and Investor Clientele [Illiquidity and stock returns: Cross-section and time-series effects]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 217-255.
    11. Bogousslavsky, Vincent, 2021. "The cross-section of intraday and overnight returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 172-194.
    12. Petri Jylhä & Kalle Rinne & Matti Suominen, 2014. "Do Hedge Funds Supply or Demand Liquidity?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1259-1298.
    13. Chen Yang, 2015. "An Empirical Study of Liquidity and Return Autocorrelations in the Chinese Stock Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 22(3), pages 261-282, September.
    14. Dyl, Edward A. & Yuksel, H. Zafer & Zaynutdinova, Gulnara R., 2019. "Price reversals and price continuations following large price movements," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 1-12.
    15. Ignashkina, Anna & Rinne, Kalle & Suominen, Matti, 2022. "Short-term reversals, returns to liquidity provision and the costs of immediacy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    16. Doron Avramov & Si Cheng & Lior Metzker, 2023. "Machine Learning vs. Economic Restrictions: Evidence from Stock Return Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2587-2619, May.
    17. Goh, Jihoon & Jeong, Giho & Kang, Jangkoo, 2022. "The reference dependency of short-term reversal," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 195-211.
    18. Ma, Yao & Yang, Baochen & Su, Yunpeng, 2021. "Stock return predictability: Evidence from moving averages of trading volume," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    19. Stefan Nagel, 2012. "Evaporating Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2005-2039.
    20. Kotaro Miwa, 2019. "Short-Term Return Reversals and Intraday Transactions," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-25, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intraday reversal; Liquidity; Chinese market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:136:y:2022:i:c:s0165188922000185. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.