IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/revfin/v20y2016i5p1835-1865..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Speculative Trading and Stock Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Li Pan
  • Ya Tang
  • Jianguo Xu

Abstract

Using data from Chinese stock markets, we examine the effect of speculative trading on stock returns. We develop a volume-related variable, abnormal turnover ratio (ATR), by isolating speculative trading from liquidity and other components in trading volume. After a group of tests verifying that ATR indeed represents speculative trading, we show that ATR negatively predicts future stock returns. The average monthly return spread between the top and bottom ATR deciles is −1.87%, suggesting a highly significant negative ATR premium. The return predictability of ATR survives after controlling for common risk factors and event-driven information shocks. These findings indicate that speculative trading affects asset prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Li Pan & Ya Tang & Jianguo Xu, 2016. "Speculative Trading and Stock Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(5), pages 1835-1865.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:20:y:2016:i:5:p:1835-1865.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/rfv059
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jianping Mei & Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2009. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: Evidence from Chinese A-B Share Premia," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(2), pages 225-255, November.
    2. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Peipei & Wen, Yuanji & Singh, Harminder, 2017. "The high-volume return premium: Does it exist in the Chinese stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB), pages 323-336.
    2. Ping‐Wen Sun & Yifan Shen & Meifen Qian & Wu Yan, 2021. "Risk of holding stocks with liquidity sensitive to market uncertainty: evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(S1), pages 1993-2029, April.
    3. Li, Xiao-Ming, 2017. "New evidence on economic policy uncertainty and equity premium," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA), pages 41-56.
    4. Xufeng Liu & Die Wan, 2022. "Does short‐selling affect mutual fund shareholdings? Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(S1), pages 1887-1923, April.
    5. Leippold, Markus & Wang, Qian & Zhou, Wenyu, 2022. "Machine learning in the Chinese stock market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 64-82.
    6. Li, Huixuan & Chen, Jing, 2022. "Does higher investments necessarily reduce stock returns?☆," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Ma, Yao & Yang, Baochen & Su, Yunpeng, 2021. "Stock return predictability: Evidence from moving averages of trading volume," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Kang, Junqing & Lin, Shen & Xiong, Xiong, 2022. "What drives intraday reversal? illiquidity or liquidity oversupply?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    9. Liu, Xufeng & Wan, Die, 2023. "Retail investor trading and ESG pricing in China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Jun Liu & Kai Wu & Fuwei Jiang & Zhiqi Shen, 2023. "How is illiquidity priced in the Chinese stock market?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(S1), pages 1285-1320, April.
    11. Zhang, Teng & Li, Jiaqi & Xu, Zhiwei, 2024. "Speculative trading, stock returns and asset pricing anomalies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    12. Hao Gao & Yuanyu Qu & Tao Shen, 2022. "Geographic proximity and price efficiency: Evidence from high‐speed railway connections between firms and financial centers," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 117-141, March.
    13. Wang, Wenzhao & Su, Chen & Duxbury, Darren, 2022. "The conditional impact of investor sentiment in global stock markets: A two-channel examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    14. Li, Zhiyong & Rao, Xiao, 2022. "Evaluating asset pricing models: A revised factor model for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    15. Cincinelli, Peter & Pellini, Elisabetta & Urga, Giovanni, 2021. "Leverage and systemic risk pro-cyclicality in the Chinese financial system," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Chen, Zhiyu & Xu, Yun & Wang, Yu, 2023. "Can convertible bond trading predict stock returns? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Cheng, Minying & Jin, Ling & Li, Zhisheng & Lin, Bingxuan, 2022. "The effectiveness of government stock purchase during market crash: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    18. Cincinelli, Peter & Pellini, Elisabetta & Urga, Giovanni, 2022. "Systemic risk in the Chinese financial system: A panel Granger causality analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    19. Chen, Xin & Chai, Daniel & Zhang, Jin, 2024. "Expected return, volume, and mispricing: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    20. Zhang, Teng & Xu, Zhiwei, 2023. "The informational feedback effect of stock prices on corporate investments: A comparison of new energy firms and traditional energy firms in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    21. Xu, Zhiwei & Li, Jiaqi & Hua, Xia & Ren, Pengyue, 2024. "Is the tone of the government-controlled media valuable for capital market? Evidence from China's new energy industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    22. Liu, Xufeng & Wan, Die, 2022. "Asymmetric positive feedback trading and stock pricing in China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    23. Yu, Bin & Shen, Yifan & Jin, Xuejun & Xu, Qi, 2022. "Does prospect theory explain mutual fund performance? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    24. Qi Xu & Ying Wang, 2021. "Managing volatility in commodity momentum," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 758-782, May.
    25. Rui Chen & Zhennan Gao & Xueyong Zhang & Min Zhu, 2018. "Mutual Fund Managers’ Prior Work Experience and Their Investment Skill," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(1), pages 3-24, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sheridan Titman & Chishen Wei. Wei & Bin Zhao, 2021. "Corporate Actions and the Manipulation of Retail Investors in China: An Analysis of Stock Splits," NBER Working Papers 29212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lin Yuan & Xiaolin Qian & Nitin Pangarkar, 2016. "Market Timing and Internationalization Decisions: A Contingency Perspective," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 497-519, June.
    3. Chu, Gang & Li, Xiao & Zhang, Yongjie, 2022. "Information demand and net selling around earnings announcement," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Hu, Conghui & Lin, Ji-Chai & Liu, Yu-Jane, 2022. "What are the benefits of attracting gambling investors? Evidence from stock splits in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Titman, Sheridan & Wei, Chishen & Zhao, Bin, 2022. "Corporate actions and the manipulation of retail investors in China: An analysis of stock splits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 762-787.
    6. Wang, Wenzhao & Su, Chen & Duxbury, Darren, 2022. "The conditional impact of investor sentiment in global stock markets: A two-channel examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Frömmel, Michael & Han, Xing & Li, Youwei & Vigne, Samuel A., 2022. "Low liquidity beta anomaly in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Han, Xing & Li, Youwei, 2017. "Can investor sentiment be a momentum time-series predictor? Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 212-239.
    9. Han, Xing & Li, Kai & Li, Youwei, 2020. "Investor overconfidence and the security market line: New evidence from China," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    10. Feng, Xunan & Johansson, Anders C. & Wei, Dengxi, 2023. "Judging a book by its cover: Analysts and attention-driven price patterns in China's IPO market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Li, Yuan & Ran, Jimmy, 2020. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Price Premium Validation with Siamese Twins from China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.
    12. Yuan Li & Yu Zhang, 2021. "Investor Sentiment, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Stock Price Premium: Evidence From Chinese Cross-Listed Companies," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    13. Fong, Wai Mun, 2009. "Speculative trading and stock returns: A stochastic dominance analysis of the Chinese A-share market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 712-727, October.
    14. Lepori, Gabriele M., 2015. "Investor mood and demand for stocks: Evidence from popular TV series finales," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 33-47.
    15. Wang, Peipei & Wen, Yuanji & Singh, Harminder, 2017. "The high-volume return premium: Does it exist in the Chinese stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB), pages 323-336.
    16. Li, Xiao-Ming, 2017. "New evidence on economic policy uncertainty and equity premium," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA), pages 41-56.
    17. Kumar, Alok, 2007. "Do the diversification choices of individual investors influence stock returns?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 362-390, November.
    18. Ding, Mingfa, 2014. "Political Connections and Stock Liquidity: Political Network, Hierarchy and Intervention," Knut Wicksell Working Paper Series 2014/7, Lund University, Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies.
    19. Keval Amin & Erica Harris, 2022. "The Effect of Investor Sentiment on Nonprofit Donations," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 175(2), pages 427-450, January.
    20. Liu, Ya-Fei & Li, Hui & Liang, Sai, 2022. "Any reputation is a good reputation: influence of investor-perceived reputation in restructuring on hospitality firm performance," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:20:y:2016:i:5:p:1835-1865.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eufaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.